235
FXUS65 KPUB 101746
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1146 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS, MAYBE ONE OR TWO RUMBLES OF THUNDER, POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
- COOLER ON WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL DRY.
- WIDESPREAD HIGH FIRE DANGER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
DRY AND WINDY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT
PORTIONS OF FREMONT COUNTY TO RETAIN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, WITH BREEZY GAP FLOW AND LOW RH VALUES. MEANWHILE,
LOOKING ALOFT, SOUTHEAST CO SITS JUST SOUTH OF AN APPROACHING
JET WHILE A CUTOFF LOW MOVES TO OUR SOUTH. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES, SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF LIFT WILL GIVE US THE CHANCE FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS, AND POTENTIALLY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO, OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THAT BEING SAID, THE TRACK OF THE LOW HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY NUDGING SOUTH, AWAY FROM OUR CWA, SO EVEN IF STORMS
DO MANAGE TO FIRE, LITTLE TO NO QPF IS ANTICIPATED. IF A
THUNDERSTORM MANAGES TO FORM, IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, LIKELY
ONLY PRODUCING WINDS TO 40-50 MPH AS IT GUSTS OUT. THE PASSING
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S-30S OVER THE PLAINS, AND
GENERALLY IN THE MID-LOW 20S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
WEDNESDAY...
GENERALLY COOLER, WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL STICK
AROUND OVER THE PLAINS, WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE
40S-50S OVER MOST AREAS. MEANWHILE, DRY AND GENERALLY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, WITH A FEW HOURS
OF SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THOUGH RH VALUES WILL PROBABLY DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT
FOR A FEW HOURS, WINDS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TOO MARGINAL TO
WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION,
LEADING TO MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SE COLORADO.
STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER LARGE
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA EACH AFTERNOON THURS-SAT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN, WITH 70S FOR HIGHS
OVER MOST AREAS AND NEAR-80 OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE ROCKIES SATURDAY, BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL MTS
AND PALMER DIVIDE STARTING SAT EVENING, AS WELL AS DROPPING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS SAT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS FOR
SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES COLDER THAN THOSE
REALIZED ON SATURDAY, WITH CONTINUED COOL BUT SEASONAL TEMPS ON
MONDAY. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR AND BE AWARE OF.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS. MAIN CONCERN THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE KPUB/KCOS REGION AROUND THE 05 UTC
TIME FRAME LATER THIS EVENING. PREFRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL BE GUSTY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FROPA, THEN EXPECT NNE GUSTY WINDS TO 30+
KTS FOR 2-3 HOURS, THEN DECREASING WINDS THEREAFTER.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ222.
SHORT TERM...WFO PUEBLO
LONG TERM...WFO PUEBLO
AVIATION...WFO PUEBLO
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