644
FXUS65 KPUB 110459
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1059 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS, MAYBE ONE OR TWO RUMBLES OF THUNDER, POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
- COOLER ON WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL DRY.
- WIDESPREAD HIGH FIRE DANGER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 700 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR EXPIRATION OF THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR FREMONT COUNTY THIS EVENING. STILL VERY DRY OUT
THERE, BUT WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING IN THE 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
DRY AND WINDY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT
PORTIONS OF FREMONT COUNTY TO RETAIN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, WITH BREEZY GAP FLOW AND LOW RH VALUES. MEANWHILE,
LOOKING ALOFT, SOUTHEAST CO SITS JUST SOUTH OF AN APPROACHING
JET WHILE A CUTOFF LOW MOVES TO OUR SOUTH. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES, SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF LIFT WILL GIVE US THE CHANCE FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS, AND POTENTIALLY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO, OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THAT BEING SAID, THE TRACK OF THE LOW HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY NUDGING SOUTH, AWAY FROM OUR CWA, SO EVEN IF STORMS
DO MANAGE TO FIRE, LITTLE TO NO QPF IS ANTICIPATED. IF A
THUNDERSTORM MANAGES TO FORM, IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, LIKELY
ONLY PRODUCING WINDS TO 40-50 MPH AS IT GUSTS OUT. THE PASSING
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S-30S OVER THE PLAINS, AND
GENERALLY IN THE MID-LOW 20S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
WEDNESDAY...
GENERALLY COOLER, WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL STICK
AROUND OVER THE PLAINS, WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE
40S-50S OVER MOST AREAS. MEANWHILE, DRY AND GENERALLY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, WITH A FEW HOURS
OF SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THOUGH RH VALUES WILL PROBABLY DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT
FOR A FEW HOURS, WINDS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TOO MARGINAL TO
WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION,
LEADING TO MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SE COLORADO.
STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER LARGE
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA EACH AFTERNOON THURS-SAT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN, WITH 70S FOR HIGHS
OVER MOST AREAS AND NEAR-80 OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE ROCKIES SATURDAY, BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL MTS
AND PALMER DIVIDE STARTING SAT EVENING, AS WELL AS DROPPING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS SAT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS FOR
SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES COLDER THAN THOSE
REALIZED ON SATURDAY, WITH CONTINUED COOL BUT SEASONAL TEMPS ON
MONDAY. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR AND BE AWARE OF.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KCOS AND KPUB...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS
BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO AROUND 35-40 KTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH 09Z THOUGH WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT. STRATUS
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KPUB AND BANK
UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS, AND EXPAND EASTWARD, POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING BOTH KPUB AND KCOS WITH VFR TO HIGH END MVFR CIGS INTO
WED MORNING. CIGS WILL BE LESS PERSISTENT IN KCOS GIVEN
NORTHEAST WINDS SO WILL KEEP THIS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW.
CLOUDS WILL BREAK BETWEEN 15-18Z FOR BOTH TERMINALS WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KALS...
LIGHT WINDS AND VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT
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