316
FXUS65 KPUB 111114
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
514 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER BUT CONTINUED DRY TODAY, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
- WIDESPREAD HIGH FIRE DANGER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
CURRENTLY...IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE THIS EVENING, BRINGING INITIAL NORTHERLY GUSTS OF AROUND 40-
45 MPH. AFTER AN HOUR OR SO, NORTH WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO
AROUND 20 MPH, AS THE COLD AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY LOW TO MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, WITH
MINIMUM TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST AREAS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A MUCH COOLER BUT CONTINUED DRY DAY TODAY AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH STRONGER NORTH WINDS LINGERING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE EASTERN PLAINS
ARE FORECAST TO ONLY WARM INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S, BUT FARTHER
WEST THE HIGH VALLEYS WILL NOT SEE THE FULL EFFECT OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. TEMPS THERE WILL STILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F
WITH PERSISTENT HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE. AS GUSTY
WINDS DEVELOP BY MIDDAY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY, SO DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY, AND FOR LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES THOUGH THE MAIN
CONCERN THERE WILL BE THE VALLEY BOTTOM. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30F FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH
ALAMOSA WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
THURSDAY...AFTER ONE COOL, MORE NORMAL DAY, THURSDAY BOUNCES RIGHT
BACK AS AN UPPER JET LAYS ACROSS MT AND WY, AND THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN
FOR THE PLAINS, AND 60S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
TOPOGRAPHY BOOSTS WIND SPEED FOR THOSE USUAL GAP FLOW LOCATIONS.
THEREFORE, HAD TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA STARTING LATE MORNING AND LASTING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CONTINUED STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL KEEP THE WARMING TREND IN PLACE ALONG WITH HIGH FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE PROBABLE. LOOK FOR
HIGHS ON FRI IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 70S TO
NEAR 80F FOR THE PLAINS. ON SAT, TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID 70S TO MID 80S FOR THE
PLAINS - AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AREAWIDE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
MORNING WILL DROP HIGH TEMPS BY 25-30 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY, WHILE THE
HIGH VALLEYS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. THE BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES
SLIGHT WARMING FOR MONDAY, THEN RIGHT BACK INTO THE HEAT FOR
TUESDAY. MOORE
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
KCOS AND KPUB...WINDS AND CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, ESPECIALLY AT KCOS THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE TERMINALS HAS BEEN LIGHT
FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. DID INCLUDE WINDS NEAR 15 KTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. CIGS NEAR 2
TO 4 KFT WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE MORNING HOURS, CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
WEAKEN, SHIFTING NORTH AT KCOS, AND WESTERLY AT KPUB OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ220-224.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ222-224-227-228-231>233.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ229-230.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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