916
FXUS65 KPUB 112353
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
553 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER BUT CONTINUED DRY TODAY, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA POSSIBLY SEEING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
- A HIGHER END FIRE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LIKELY.
- COOLER SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
A TRADITIONAL COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT HAS UNFOLDED ACROSS I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE COMPARED TO RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY, THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST WERE LOWERED BY 5-7 F.
OTHERWISE, THE RED FLAG WARNING SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING FOR BUENA
VISTA AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SO THE WARNING WAS CONTINUED. THE
ONLY OTHER WEATHER OF NOTE IS THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
ON THURSDAY, A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ALOFT,
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AS SLIGHT SUBSIDENT FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE DUE TO BEING UNDER THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL CREATE VERY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO 9-15%.
THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND UP TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. THEREFORE, THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR, PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS, AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE CHANGES MADE WERE TO ADD
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 226 (NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY) INTO THE WARNING
AND TO EXTEND THE WARNING TIME FOR ALL LOCATIONS TO 11 AM TO 9
PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY NOT FULLY REACH CRITERIA IN ZONE 226 BUT
THAT AREA WILL BE ONE OF THE WINDIER SPOTS SO IT FELT LIKE
ISSUING A WARNING WAS THE BEST DECISION. THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COLORADO FIRE ZONES DO NOT HAVE ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
BECAUSE WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST THERE. IT IS POSSIBLE A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED THERE IF THERE IS BETTER
CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER WINDS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
ON FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
COLORADO. THERE WILL BE NO IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT OTHER THAN
REDUCING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE DAY WHICH MAY HELP
REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THERE ARE GROWING
CONCERNS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL HAVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN. CONDITIONS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN TO 8-14% WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHERN WYOMING ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH, THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL
INCREASE IN COLORADO. THIS, UNFORTUNATELY, MAY LEAD TO A HIGHER
END FIRE DANGER EVENT WITH CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE TO 6-13%
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WINDS WILL BE
AN ISSUE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50-55 MPH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WITH GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS MAY AVOID THE STRONGEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE STRONG WORDING.
A STRONG TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES IN THE
AFTERNOON MAY BE 30-40 F COOLER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND A COUPLE
BANDS OF SNOW MAY MAKE IT ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN
PLAINS.
NEXT WORK WEEK, AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN US. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY AND RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THE FIRST 90 F TEMPERATURE OF THE
YEAR OCCURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. BREEZY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DECOUPLE AND
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN DIRECTIONS AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ220-224.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ222-
224-226>233.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page