814
FXUS65 KPUB 161047
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPS CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
- WARMING TREND INTO MID WEEK WITH WARMEST AND POTENTIALLY RECORD
BREAKING TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1243 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MODERATING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION, AS OUR PASSING SYSTEM AND
JET CORE IS CARVING OUT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST, WITH MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME. SAID PASSING WAVE
HAS KEPT ENOUGH UVV AND MOISTURE IN PLACE TO KEEP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION THIS EVENING, WITH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS INDICATING ECHOES FADING AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE
EAST. OTHERWISE, STARTING TO SEE INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SLOW WARMING ALOFT WITH
CONTINUED BOUTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SHOWERS DIMINISHING THROUGH TONIGHT, AS MOISTURE FADES OVERNIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE
SNOW MAINLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS.
WILL SEE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 35 MPH OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TODAY, WHICH COULD PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. HOWEVER, WITH INCREASING AVAILABLE MOISTURE, WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISTRICT
AT THIS TIME.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH 30S, 40S AND 50S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER THAN TODAY, MAINLY IN THE 20S AREAWIDE, SAVE FOR SOME 30S ACROSS
THE BANANA BELT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND STARTS ON TUESDAY, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. LATEST MODEL DATA IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF DEVELOPING A STRONG
595DM UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY, WHICH MEANDERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE BEING PUSHED SOUTH AND
WEST BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE, WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS.
AGAIN, WHILE MODELS KEEP THE THE WARMEST AIR ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL LIKELY CHALLENGE DAILY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES (SEE CLIMATE SECTION) FROM MID WEEK ON, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO SET MARCH MONTHLY RECORD HIGHS OF 76F IN ALAMOSA, 81F IN
COLORADO SPRINGS AND 86F IN PUEBLO.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A FEW FLURRIES AND PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS EL PASO
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT, AS WELL AS BANKED UP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE EASTERN MTS. HOWEVER, SYSTEM EXITING TO THE EAST AND
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE,
PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS, KPUB AND KALS. A FEW
THINGS TO ADD FOR TAF SITES FOLLOWING.
KALS: BRISK NORTH WINDS THROUGH EARLY MORNING, THEN GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AROUND 22Z
AND LASTING THROUGH 03Z.
KCOS: PATCHY MVFR CIGS NOW THROUGH 19Z. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME VERY SPOTTY FOG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
THE TAF.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
LCD SITES MARCH 17TH-21ST RECORD HIGHS
ISSUED AT 1243 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
ALS...TUE...MAR 17...70F...2017
ALS...WED...MAR 18...73F...2017
ALS...THU...MAR 19...72F...1907
ALS...FRI...MAR 20...72F...2004
ALS...SAT...MAR 21...72F...1997
COS...TUE...MAR 17...74F...1908
COS...WED...MAR 18...80F...2017
COS...THU...MAR 19...80F...2017
COS...FRI...MAR 20...76F...2017
COS...SAT...MAR 21...75F...1995
PUB...TUE...MAR 17...80F...2007
PUB...WED...MAR 18...85F...2017
PUB...THU...MAR 19...86F...2017
PUB...FRI...MAR 20...84F...2017
PUB...SAT...MAR 21...82F...2016
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE
CLIMATE...MW
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