578
FXUS65 KPUB 161933
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
133 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIKELY HISTORIC HEAT WAVE BEGINS TOMORROW AND LAST THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FROM SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST COOL DAY FOR AWHILE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
IN THE 50S WILL BE REPLACED BY 70S TOMORROW AND 80S (AND SOME 90S)
THEREAFTER THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE, A HISTORIC HEAT WAVE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING
THIS PERIOD. MAX TEMPS FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN TEH
80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 70S IN THE VALLEY. FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE U80S TO L90S PLAINS, AND UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. WITHOUT SAYING, THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE RECORD DAILY TEMPERATURES, WITH THE ALL
TIME MONTHLY TEMPERATURES FOR EACH OF THE 3 PRIMARY ASOS SITES BEING
BROKEN, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE TEMP RECORDS ARE SHOWN
IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE DESI
GUIDANCE. THIS CAN BE TRACED TO THE DIFFERENCE IN THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE AS THE GFS HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A
MUCH MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS PATTERN BRINGS
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WHILE THE EC GUIDANCE KEEPS THE AREA VERY
WARM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS. SURFACE WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB WILL
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN, HOWEVER AT KALS, EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN LIGHT WINDS THEREAFTER.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
LCD SITES MARCH 17TH-21ST RECORD HIGHS
ALS...TUE...MAR 17...70F...2017
ALS...WED...MAR 18...73F...2017
ALS...THU...MAR 19...72F...1907
ALS...FRI...MAR 20...72F...2004
ALS...SAT...MAR 21...72F...1997
COS...TUE...MAR 17...74F...1908
COS...WED...MAR 18...80F...2017
COS...THU...MAR 19...80F...2017
COS...FRI...MAR 20...76F...2017
COS...SAT...MAR 21...75F...1995
PUB...TUE...MAR 17...80F...2007
PUB...WED...MAR 18...85F...2017
PUB...THU...MAR 19...86F...2017
PUB...FRI...MAR 20...84F...2017
PUB...SAT...MAR 21...82F...2016
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR ALAMOSA .........IS 76.
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR COLORADO SPRINGS IS 81.
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR PUEBLO ..........IS 86.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH
CLIMATE...MW/HODANISH
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