011
FXUS65 KPUB 170709
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
109 AM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH ABOVE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
- PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY, AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1250 AM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
CURRENTLY...BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNRISE, WITH PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS, WITH
LOWS BY MORNING IN THE 20S ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF
THE WEST COAST AND SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO CALIFORNIA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WEAK ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY
GENERATE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS,
NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
FORECAST, AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SPOTTY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE PLAINS, AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM. HIGHS TODAY WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ON THE PLAINS, WHILE THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY SEES HIGHS IN THE 60S.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERHEAD. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST, WITH 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND 20S ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 AM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DOMINATE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES, WITH CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND, BECOMING MORE ZONAL WESTERLY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OUT WEST
WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM, ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS ON THE
PLAINS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW, WITH MOST DAYS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. WINDS OVERALL LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE, WHICH WILL PRECLUDE MOST AREAS FROM SEEING FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY, EASTERN MOUNTAINS, AND FREMONT COUNTY. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND FREMONT COUNTY
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, WITH POTENTIAL SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS LATER THIS WEEK. AT THIS
TIME, NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO FALL.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH MORE ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS COLORADO. WEAK ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
IMPACT THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS. WITH THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO SPREAD EAST
INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS, INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS, KPUB AND KALS.
MENTIONED WIND SHEAR FOR KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z AS SFC
WINDS GO LIGHT BUT W-NW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK REMAIN AT 35 KTS.
WINDS INCREASE FOR ALL SITES AROUND 20Z TOMORROW WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 25-30 KTS, LASTING UNTIL AROUND 02Z TOMORROW EVENING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
LCD SITES MARCH 17TH-21ST RECORD HIGHS
ALS...TUE...MAR 17...70F...2017
ALS...WED...MAR 18...73F...2017
ALS...THU...MAR 19...72F...1907
ALS...FRI...MAR 20...72F...2004
ALS...SAT...MAR 21...72F...1997
COS...TUE...MAR 17...74F...1908
COS...WED...MAR 18...80F...2017
COS...THU...MAR 19...80F...2017
COS...FRI...MAR 20...76F...2017
COS...SAT...MAR 21...75F...1995
PUB...TUE...MAR 17...80F...2007
PUB...WED...MAR 18...85F...2017
PUB...THU...MAR 19...86F...2017
PUB...FRI...MAR 20...84F...2017
PUB...SAT...MAR 21...82F...2016
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR ALAMOSA .........IS 76.
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR COLORADO SPRINGS IS 81.
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR PUEBLO ..........IS 86.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ222-224.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOORE
CLIMATE...MW
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