103
FXUS65 KPUB 182315
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
515 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT WAVE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY, SPOTTY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- COOLING OF A BIT SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT WARMING UP AGAIN TUESDAY,
SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER STILL LIKELY THIS PERIOD.
- NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH TEMPS AROUND 60 IN THE LARGER
VALLEYS.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE U70S TO M80S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS AND MID 70S
VALLEYS. THESE TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE.
TONIGHT...CLEAR AND DRY. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY NOT RECOVER TOO MUCH
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE REGIONS.
TOMORROW...
HOT. RECORD TEMPS ARE LIKELY AT THE 3 PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES AS
FORECASTED TEMPS WILL BE 80S IN THE SPRINGS, 85 IN PUEBLO AND
77 FOR ALAMOSA. WINDS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WEAKER
THAN TODAY AS THEE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL LESSEN. LIKEWISE,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
|FRIDAY: CONTINUED HOT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-3F WARMER THAN ON
THURSDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND DIURNALLY
DRIVE. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW, WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
SATURDAY...
THIS DAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FIRE WEATHER-WISE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE RECORD LEVEL VALUES AND
WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE
GRADIENT ALOFT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL ALLOW A LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE WINDS OVER THE REGION. WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS, VALLEYS AND THE GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. WINDS
THIS DAY IN THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREAS WILL BE IN THE 25
TO 35 MPH RANGE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SUNDAY...
A COOL FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER THE PLAINS AND TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT COOLER REGION WIDE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY AND IT WILL BE THE VALLEY REGIONS WHICH MAY SEE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.
MONDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP ONCE AGAIN BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW RECORD
VALUES, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BUT
APPEAR TO BE SPOTTY AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THESE DAYS AS TEMPS WARM UP REGIONWIDE AND THE FLOW
OVER THE REGION WILL BE STRONGER AS ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT,
AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY. I SHOULD MENTION THAT THERE IS
A RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN MAX TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD AS SOME
OF THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HAS MORE AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH WHILE OTHERS REMAIN ZONAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS, INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS, KPUB AND KALS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND GENERALLY UNDER 12
KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
LCD SITES MARCH 18TH-21ST RECORD HIGHS
ALS...WED...MAR 18...73F...2017
ALS...THU...MAR 19...72F...1907
ALS...FRI...MAR 20...72F...2004
ALS...SAT...MAR 21...72F...1997
COS...WED...MAR 18...80F...2017
COS...THU...MAR 19...80F...2017
COS...FRI...MAR 20...76F...2017
COS...SAT...MAR 21...75F...1995
PUB...WED...MAR 18...85F...2017
PUB...THU...MAR 19...86F...2017
PUB...FRI...MAR 20...84F...2017
PUB...SAT...MAR 21...82F...2016
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR ALAMOSA .........IS 76.
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR COLORADO SPRINGS IS 81.
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR PUEBLO ..........IS 86.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ222-224.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE
CLIMATE...HODANISH
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