360
FXUS65 KPUB 210449
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1049 PM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH FIRE DANGER AND HISTORICALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY.
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING COOLER (BUT
STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL) TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
CURRENTLY..
AT NOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS
ALL OF OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH SPRINGFIELD SITTING AT 86F, FORT
CARSON AT 78F, AND TRINIDAD AT 81F. WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT AND ARE
EITHER FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS, THOUGH PORTIONS OF EL
PASO ARE SEEING GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE TEENS
AND 20S, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. EVEN
LEADVILLE IS CURRENTLY REPORTING AN RH OF 12%.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT..
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS CLIMATE
RECORDS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. PUEBLO BROKE OUR ALL-TIME
MARCH RECORD YESTERDAY, AND BOTH ALAMOSA AND COLORADO SPRINGS TIED
THEIRS. THOSE RECORDS WILL LIKELY FALL AGAIN TODAY IN ALL THREE
LOCATIONS, WITH APRIL RECORDS IN JEOPARDY TOMORROW. TODAY'S WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT WHICH IS VERY GOOD NEWS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT
THAT CHANGES TOMORROW AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN
CLOSER TO WHERE OUR SEASONAL HIGHS SHOULD BE, WITH COLORADO SPRINGS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL ALSO BE POOR GIVEN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS
INCREASED MIXING, AND WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WITH MUCH OUR
PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS ONLY "RECOVERING" INTO THE 20% RANGE.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER TOMORROW.
SATURDAY..
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY, LEADING TO
INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. JET SUPPORT IS LACKING FOR
ANY HIGH WIND CONCERNS, BUT WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND DOWN INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH OUR GAP FLOWS. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO
PERSIST AS WELL, WITH SINGLE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PERSISTING
ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO
RECORD TERRITORY TOMORROW, WITH ALL-TIME APRIL MONTHLY HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAT MIGHT BE BROKEN
STANDING APRIL RECORD FORECAST
C. SPRINGS 87 88
PUEBLO 94 94
ALAMOSA 80 81
HISTORICALLY HOT TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY FOR ALL
ELEVATIONS LOWER THAN WHERE CURRENT SNOWPACK EXISTS, AND FOR ALL OF
OUR MOUNTAIN ADJACENT PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR
ALL ZONE ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 FROM 11 AM THROUGH 11 PM
TOMORROW. PLEASE BE EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS WITH TRAILER CHAINS
TOMORROW, AND TAKE CARE NOT TO START A WILDFIRE. ANY NEW STARTS
WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO CONTROL!
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY..
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, AND
OUR RED FLAG WARNING DOES NOT EXPIRE UNTIL 11 PM, WHEN WINDS FINALLY
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE, AND TEMPERATURES MANAGE TO COOL DOWN ENOUGH TO
BRING HUMIDITY VALUES UP INTO THE 20% RANGE. A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
BACKS ACROSS OUR PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
BRINGING DEWPOINTS UP INTO 30S AND HUMIDITIES INTO 50%-70% RANGE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS QUICK REPRIEVE WILL HELP TO STABILIZE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY, THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SAN LUIS
VALLEY, WHERE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATEST, MAY
STILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
HIGHS LOOK TO SIT A SOLID 20 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 70S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. THOUGH THIS
WILL FEEL SIGNIFICANT FOLLOWING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THIS IS ALSO
STILL AROUND 15 DEGREES OR SO WARMER THAN NORMAL. CHANCE FOR
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO DWINDLE,
THOUGH LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION.
MONDAY ONWARDS..
WE GO RIGHT BACK INTO ZONAL FLOW BY MONDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. MONDAY WILL BE DRY, WITH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LIKELY ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR, PORTIONS OF THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY AND FREMONT COUNTY MAY SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AS WELL. RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR BACK INTO THE 80S AND 90S. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT WINDS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BUT A TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD
TO MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF OUR
NEXT POSSIBLE COLD FRONT AROUND THE NEXT FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
AT ALL TERMINALS SAT AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS FROM 20Z
INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH 02Z-04Z SAT EVENING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 134 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
LCD SITES MARCH 20TH-21ST RECORD HIGHS
ALS...FRI...MAR 20...72F...2004
ALS...SAT...MAR 21...72F...1997
COS...FRI...MAR 20...76F...2017
COS...SAT...MAR 21...75F...1995
PUB...FRI...MAR 20...84F...2017
PUB...SAT...MAR 21...82F...2016
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR ALAMOSA .........IS 76.
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR COLORADO SPRINGS IS 81.
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR PUEBLO ..........IS 87.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
COZ220>230-237.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...PETERSEN
CLIMATE...MOORE
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