445
FXUS65 KPUB 210704
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
104 AM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TODAY, WITH ALL TIME MARCH RECORDS SET TO FALL (MOST OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE 90S).
- HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO VERY
LOW HUMIDITY, HOT TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS 30 TO 45 MPH.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF COOL DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
BEFORE WARMING BACK UP MID NEXT WEEK WITH MORE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. TEMPERATURE ARE MILD WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, WITH LIGHT WINDS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. THE UPPER HIGH TO
THE WEST IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO WESTERLY ZONAL BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ENHANCED MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S AND 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ALL
TIME RECORD MARCH HIGH TEMPERATURES (BY SEVERAL DEGREES AGAIN
TODAY). HIGHS NEAR LAMAR COULD REACH NEAR 100 THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH MOS GUIDANCE TOPPING OUT AT 99, AND NBM AT 97. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW, WITH VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-25. GUSTS
30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN BACA
COUNTY AS WELL. RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM LATE
MORNING, WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE WE DO NOT HAVE RED
FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-25 COUNTIES, IT
WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY HOT AND DRY, AND WINDS COULD MIX FURTHER
EAST. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER THIS EVENING, AND
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AROUND MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS TELLER, EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
EMBEDDED WAVE IN ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER AIR TO THE PLAINS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S BY THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE COOLER, THESE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL 10 PLUS
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S PERCENT,
ALONG WITH BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION,
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN DRIER. AT BEST, AND ISOLATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRAY
SHOWER COULD ALSO MOVE ACROSS TELLER COUNTY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW OVER THIS AREA.
BY MONDAY, THE NEXT UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM, WITH MOST OF THE PLAINS IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RAMP
BACK UP, INITIALLY ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, AND INTO THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER HIGH TO THE WEST WILL FLATTEN
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH NORTHWEST TO ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. ENHANCED MIXING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
WARM BACK THROUGH THE 80S AND LOW 90S, WITH THE WARMEST READINGS
ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO
NEAR 10 PERCENT, WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES TO END THE
WORK WEEK. NBM GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT MOST OTHER GUIDANCE IS DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
AT ALL TERMINALS SAT AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS FROM 20Z
INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH 02Z-04Z SAT EVENING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 134 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
LCD SITES MARCH 20TH-21ST RECORD HIGHS
ALS...SAT...MAR 21...72F...1997
COS...SAT...MAR 21...75F...1995
PUB...SAT...MAR 21...82F...2016
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR ALAMOSA .........IS 78.
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR COLORADO SPRINGS IS 81.
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR PUEBLO ..........IS 89.
THESE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMPERATURES WERE SET OR TIED
YESTERDAY (FRIDAY MARCH 20, 2026).
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ220>230-237.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN
CLIMATE...MOZLEY
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