203
FXUS65 KPUB 220504
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1104 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING COOLER
(BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL) TEMPERATURES FOR OUR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
- CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
ALLOWED RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AS WINDS HAVE WEAKENED AT
MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH RH HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO RECOVER, WITH
VALUES STILL ONLY IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY..
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN JUST AS WARM OR WARMER FOR
SOME LOCATIONS AS WHERE WE WERE LAST NIGHT, THANKS TO CONTINUED
WESTERLY FLOW AND MIXING. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND UPPER ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY LOOKS TO SEE LOWS IN THE 30S, WITH MOST OTHER/LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S. MODELS BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS NEAR SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING, USHERING
IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES. WINDS LOOK TO GUST TO 35 OR 40 MPH ON OUR FAR
EASTERN PLAINS AND OVER EL PASO COUNTY AS THE FRONT IS PUSHING
THROUGH, WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS FRONT
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR ALL LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS TOMORROW, TO INCLUDE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. DEWPOINTS ALSO
HOP FROM NEAR ZERO TODAY TO 20S AND 30S FOR TOMORROW, WHICH WILL
BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEHIND THE
FRONT, BUT MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY. A FEW VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK
REGION, BUT ONLY WITH TRACE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY..
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL NIGHTS, BUT STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST OF THE PLAINS LOOKS TO COOL
INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S, WITH 20S FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. RIDGING
BEGINS TO SET BACK UP ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY, ALLOWING OUR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND PLAINS LOCATIONS. OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH JUST ENOUGH FLOW TO LIKELY
LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH
COUNTRY, THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, AND THE I-25 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION
IS NOT EXPECTED.
TUESDAY ONWARDS..
WE REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
THROUGH MID-WEEK, KEEPING WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF WARMER THAN
NORMAL, AND POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD, TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF AN INCOMING COLD
FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON WHETHER IT WILL ARRIVE
THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. EARLIER ARRIVAL WILL STAVE OFF FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS FOR THURSDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND NEXT SATURDAY LOOK TO
COOL BACK DOWN SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE, BUT ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL. MOISTURE POTENTIAL WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM IS LOOKING MEAGER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES, KCOS, KPUB,
AND KALS, FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH KCOS AND KPUB 10Z/11Z SUN MORNING, WITH NORTH WINDS
GUSTING 25-30 KTS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
TO E-SE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON. AT KALS, LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT, THEN A PERIOD OF SE WINDS GUSTING (20-35 KTS)
IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE
EVENING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
LCD SITES MARCH 20TH-21ST RECORD HIGHS
ALS...SAT...MAR 21...72F...1997
COS...SAT...MAR 21...75F...1995
PUB...SAT...MAR 21...82F...2016
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR ALAMOSA .........IS 78.
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR COLORADO SPRINGS IS 81.
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR PUEBLO ..........IS 89.
THESE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMPERATURES WERE SET OR TIED
YESTERDAY (FRIDAY MARCH 20, 2026).
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...PETERSEN
CLIMATE...MOZLEY
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