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FXUS65 KPUB 221125
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
525 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF RESPITE FROM HOT TEMPS TODAY, THOUGH WE
STILL REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE.
- HOTTER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING,
GIVING US A SLIGHTLY COOLER START TO THE DAY AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL
EXPECTATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE HIGH 60S TO 70S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA, COUPLED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL TURN EASTERLY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH
OR SO WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE. SOME STRONGER GUSTS OF
35-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
WE CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER TELLER COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON, SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION. OVERALL IT WILL BE DRY, WARM, WINDY DAY.
DESPITE THE AMBIENT CONDITIONS, NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS NEEDED
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER OVER THE PLAINS, BUT RH VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. MEANWHILE, THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
REMAINS MUCH DRIER, BUT AT THIS TIME SURFACE WINDS APPEAR TOO LIGHT
FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS.
WE COOL OFF A BIT MORE TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 30S-40S ACROSS THE
AREA, ALONG WITH NOTICEABLY BETTER RH RECOVERY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT BREEZY OVERNIGHT, MAINLY OUT OF THE SSE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE WEEK, THE FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON
TRACK. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN OVER THE
REGION, RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR SE COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES, 70S ON MONDAY AND
SOME 90S OVER THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
MORE RECORDS.
GIVEN THE GUSTIER WEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS, AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES, HAVE HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE VALLEY AS
WELL AS ADJACENT GAP FLOW AREAS.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EACH DAY,
MAINLY OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, FREMONT COUNTY, AND PORTIONS OF THE
SE MOUNTAINS, THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOW A DRY
COLD FRONT MOVING IN SOMETIME ON THURSDAY, WHICH COULD CREATE MORE
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING.
THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A BIT AROUND THE
END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL, NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANYTHING IN TERMS OF
MOISTURE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KCOS AND KPUB: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GUSTY NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS TAF PERIOD FOLLOWING FROPA AT 11Z THIS MORNING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH LESSENING WINDS HEADING INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE, HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE PLACE WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART OF THIS TAF PERIOD, BUT
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS COLD
AIR SPILLS INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY OVER LA VETA PASS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LESSEN THOUGH HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE, HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE PLACE WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR COZ225-229.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...SIMCOE
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