404
FXUS65 KPUB 230451
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1051 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN
COOLING DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK.
- MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE TOMORROW, WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY.
- LONG RANGE SHOWS A WETTER PATTERN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
CURRENTLY...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER TODAY (BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE) THAN YESTERDAYS HISTORIC
HIGHS. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING (WHICH IS UNCOMMON) AND MAY BECOME RATHER
STRONG OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING. DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION, IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY (ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A VERY LOW END CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE PIKES PEAK REGION.
FOR TOMORROW, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AND RED FLAG
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN
MTNS AND PARTS OF THE RATON MESA REGION AS RH VALUES AND WIND
GUSTS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THESE
LOCATIONS. AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH WELL INTO
THE 70S MOST OF THE PLAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY. IT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY REGIONWIDE TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
TUESDAY...
TEMPS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE FCST AREA WITH UPPER 70S TO MID
80S EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE A
BIT LESS SO FIRE WEATHER WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN THIS DAY.
WEDNESDAY...
THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FCST PERIOD. 90S ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP AND
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THIS DAY, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MTNS, VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR REGIONS ONCE AGAIN.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK (ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY), AND WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP,
EVEN OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL STILL BE
HIGH ON THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE DAY), BUT SHOULD DROP
OFF SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION
(ESPECIALLY MTNS), AND TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE 70S AND 80S DURING
THIS TIME. WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME THUNDER OVER THE PLAINS NEXT
WEEKEND.
LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT, LONG RANGE GUIDANCE (BOTH DETERMINISTIC
AND DESI STATISTICAL) SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE HEADING TOWARDS
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST, SO WE MAY SEE
A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS.
AT KALS, LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS
GENERALLY UNDER 12 KTS. ON MON, W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
17Z-19Z, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, THEN DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z MON EVENING.
AT KCOS AND KPUB, SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, STRONGEST AT
KCOS WHERE SPEEDS MAY OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 12 KTS. ALSO A LOW
RISK OF SOME PATCHY STRATUS (SCT-BKN010) AT KCOS TOWARD 12Z,
THOUGH MOST FORECAST SOUNDING DON'T QUITE SATURATE, SO WON'T
INCLUDE IN THE TAF FOR NOW. ON MONDAY, SE UPSLOPE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AT BOTH SITES, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
UNDER 15 KTS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ224-225-
229-230.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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