842
FXUS65 KPUB 230647
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1247 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WARM CONSIDERABLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, COOLING DOWN
NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1246 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION, THOUGH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT LOOKS TO INCREASE A BIT TODAY. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE, PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, LEADING TO MORE ELEVATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, SE MOUNTAINS, AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, RANGING FROM
HIGH-60S TO MID-70S. WARMEST AREAS WILL COINCIDE WITH RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S-40S, WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND MODEST RH RECOVERY ALONGSIDE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 70S TO MID-80S, THOUGH WITH
SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS. CURRENTLY, WINDS LOOK TOO LIGHT FOR
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS, THOUGH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL BE
CLOSE. NO HIGHLIGHTS NEEDED, AS OF NOW, BUT IF CONDITIONS BECOME
LESS SPOTTY MIGHT HAVE TO HOIST SOMETHING WITH THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS OVER THE
PLAINS CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. EXPECTING SOME MORE GUSTY WINDS AS
WELL, AND MORE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY,
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS, AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
A PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE
PLAINS THURS-FRI, LEADING TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA. ALONG WITH THAT, SOME PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CO MAY ACTUALLY SEE
SOME SHOWERS, THOUGH THEY'LL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.
EVEN SO, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY,
AS THE FRONT BRINGS IN STRONGER WIND GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
LOOKING INTO AND BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND, CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPING OFF OF THE CA COAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME
FOR DETAILS TO CHANGE, BUT INITIAL THOUGHTS SUGGEST THE CHANCE FOR
SOME MOISTURE TO FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS.
AT KALS, LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS
GENERALLY UNDER 12 KTS. ON MON, W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
17Z-19Z, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, THEN DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z MON EVENING.
AT KCOS AND KPUB, SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, STRONGEST AT
KCOS WHERE SPEEDS MAY OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 12 KTS. ALSO A LOW
RISK OF SOME PATCHY STRATUS (SCT-BKN010) AT KCOS TOWARD 12Z,
THOUGH MOST FORECAST SOUNDING DON'T QUITE SATURATE, SO WON'T
INCLUDE IN THE TAF FOR NOW. ON MONDAY, SE UPSLOPE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AT BOTH SITES, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
UNDER 15 KTS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ224-225-229-230.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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