323
FXUS65 KPUB 101721
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1121 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TODAY WITH SHOWERS; SOME THUNDER MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE
AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER.
- WARMER AND WINDY SATURDAY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
ALL AREAS (SURFACE RH RELATIVELY HIGH, BUT POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR DRY LIGHTNING??)
- SUNDAY AND MONDAY, CLASSIC CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS DUE TO STRONG
20 FOOT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES.
- TUESDAY, MTN SNOWS, COOLER WEATHER MOVING IN BUT MAY SEE SOME
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1216 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BACKDOOR INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
THIS MORNING, WITH COOLER WEATHER MOVING IN ALONG WITH LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE. BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
PER SPC GUIDANCE, THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
FOR TONIGHT, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION,
WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW LIKELY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
SATURDAY...
IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND WINDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL THE COLUMN WILL BE RELATIVELY MOIST AND
SURFACE RH VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER THIS DAY COULD BE PROBLEMATIC
FROM A FIRE WEATHER STANDPOINT AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GRASS FIRES ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND WITH THE
WINDY REMAINING STRONG THROUGH THE DAY, WE COULD SEE ANY
POTENTIAL FIRES SPREADING ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE DID HAVE A FEW
FIRE STARTS LAST EVENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO
LIGHTNING STRIKES. WITH THIS SAID, IF WE ARE FORTUNATE TO GET
SOME DECENT RAIN OVER THE PLAINS TOMORROW (FRIDAY), THIS WOULD
ALLEVIATE THE FIRE THREAT. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CAREFULLY.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG AS THE COMBO OF SYNOPTIC FLOW AND
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG GUSTS. PER LATEST SPC OUTLOOKS,
THE GREATEST THREAT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
CLASSIC DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER SETUP. DEEP STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW,
VERY LOW SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW
FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS IF A FIRE SHOULD START. THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY (AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN MTNS) MAY ALSO NEED FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THESE TWO DAYS.
TUESDAY...
A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS IT WILL
BE A BIT SLOWER AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS LONGITUDINALLY
DEEP. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. IT DOES
APPEAR THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
SHOULD DO WELL AS THERE APPEARS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM FOR APPRECIABLE RAIN AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THIS PERIOD. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
INCREASE AS RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE VERY LOW BUT THE GRADIENT
ALOFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK. SO WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT EACH
TERMINAL (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) WILL BE SHOWERS MOVING NEAR THEM.
ANY SHOWERS THAT MOVE NEAR KCOS AND KPUB COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 30 KTS AS THEY PASS. LOW CIGS AT KCOS AND
KPUB WILL IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INTO THIS EVENING. LOW STRATUS RETURNS THIS EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH CIGS NEAR 2-3 KFT. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH GUSTS AT KALS AND KCOS NEARING 25 TO 30 KTS BY
18Z.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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