859
FXUS65 KPUB 110350
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
950 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY
ACROSS THE REGION.
- HIGH FIRE DANGER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
CURRENTLY...WEAK ENERGY MOVING ACROSS COLORADO IN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS HELPING TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY AND DOWN NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL, WITH 50S FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY AND MOST OF THE PLAINS. IN AREAS THAT HAVE
CLEARED, TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60S.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE WEAK ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MARGINAL INSTABILITY,
WITH SBCAPE VALUES NEARING 300 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
RATON MESA REGION. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS AND ONE
OR TWO STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE RATON MESA COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH WIND GUSTS 55 TO 60 MPH AND HAIL NEAR 1
INCH IN DIAMETER. THE CONFIDENCE IN THESE CONDITIONS IS LOW AT
THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL SHIFT EAST INTO KANSAS THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST ONCE THIS ACTIVITY
DEPARTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
PLAINS, WITH 30S ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
SATURDAY...A MORE ROBUST EMBEDDED UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO ON SATURDAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON, WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP LEAD TO SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 500 TO
700 J/KG RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON. WIND
GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH AND HAIL NEAR 1 INCH IN DIAMETER MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS ON THE PLAINS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I-25 WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXIST. THERE HAS BEEN CONCERN
WITH DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, BUT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS (HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE) WILL
LIMIT THAT THREAT EAST OF I-25. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY
ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S BY THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DIFFERENCES SHOW
UP TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD HIGH FIRE DANGER DAYS, WHILE ACTIVE
WEATHER RETURNS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILL IN ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH 70S
AND 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND 60S OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR SUNDAY WILL BE HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
ARE ONGOING SATURDAY EVENING TO QUICKLY SHIFT EAST INTO KANSAS
WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE,
WITH LOW QPF VALUES, THE HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE WIDESPREAD ON
SUNDAY, WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 35 TO 45 MPH AND
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. IF SATURDAY'S
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS MORE WIDESPREAD WITH HIGHER QPF VALUES,
THE HIGH FIRE DANGER MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD. FOR NOW, ISSUED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS FOR
SUNDAY, AND ANY UPGRADE ON FUTURE SHIFTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
ANY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON MONDAY, FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES WITH STRONGER WINDS AND CONTINUED DRY AIR ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST,
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH POSSIBLE, AND WILL COMBINE WITH
HUMIDITY VALUES UNDER 10 PERCENT. FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE NECESSARY. AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
AREA, A FEW RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS DIVERGE A BIT FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK, WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
DROPPING THE NEXT UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD,
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS WOULD GIVE US ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DAY TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
THE GFS WOULD ALSO BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL STORM TRACK. WHILE STILL ACTIVE, THE ECMWF WOULD LIKELY
KEEP MOST SHOWER, HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER NORTH. IT IS ALSO A BE
DELAYED COMPARED TO THE GFS, WITH THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK, ALONG THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE NBM GUIDANCE
IS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD, WITH DAILY PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TUESDAY TO FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 950 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
AT KCOS AND KPUB..MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS AND MIST WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINLY AT KCOS
FROM NOW THROUGH AROUND 15Z. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30KT AT
BOTH STATIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOW END (30 PERCENT) CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z
AND 00Z AT BOTH STATIONS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS TOMORROW.
AT KALS..VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
VICINITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MIDDLE AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY,
GENERALLY AFTER 18Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT MOVE NEAR STATION.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ220>222-224>237.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...EHR
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