389
FXUS65 KPUB 111139
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
539 AM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS
- RED FLAG CONDITIONS AND HIGH FIRE DANGER RETURN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH STRONG WINDS WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY
- WEATHER SYSTEM TUESDAY MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
. POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WRN U.S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
STILL A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE SERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH SOME WEAK ECHOES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS
WELL. DOUBT WE'LL HAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE AT MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND HAVE CUT BACK POPS CONSIDERABLY
THROUGH THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON, APPROACHING UPPER WAVE AND
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP TO FIRE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON, WITH AT LEAST A
FEW CAMS SUGGESTING A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON, REACHING THE KS BORDER EARLY IN
THE EVENING. CAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AND FORECAST CLOUD
BASES OF 8K-10K AGL SUGGEST GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN STORM THREAT, WITH D-CAPE ALONG I-25 AROUND 800 J/KG BY
MID-AFTERNOON. SUPPOSE WE COULD SEE A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL
THREAT NEAR THE KS BORDER TOWARD 00Z WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS SLIGHTLY MORE PLENTIFUL, THOUGH EVEN HERE, STRONG WINDS OVER
60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN STORM FEATURE. ACTIVITY WANES QUICKLY
IN THE EVENING, AS WAVE DEPARTS AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION.
ON SUNDAY, SWLY MID/UPPER FLOW STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION, AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY, WITH WINDS GUSTING 40-50
MPH AND HUMIDITY AROUND 10 PERCENT, AND HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO A WARNING AS A RESULT. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES, WITH READINGS IN THE 60S/70S
COMMON, AND A FEW 80S ON THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY, WITH DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH
FIRE DANGER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND HAVE ISSUED A NEW
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY,
WHERE AGAIN WINDS WILL GUST 40-55 MPH. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON, SO HAVE HELD
OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR MOST MOUNTAIN ZONES, WHERE
IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DRIVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT
FOR THE REQUIRED 3 HRS. COULD EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS BACK ALONG
THE DIVIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL, AS LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE
ACROSS WRN COLORADO. MAXES AGAIN LOOK VERY WARM, THOUGH
LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE READINGS DROP A FEW DEGF AS
MID LEVEL TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL.
ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE, UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA AND
EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS COLORADO TUE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS SYSTEM COMES ACROSS, WITH AT LEAST A
FEW INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS/PASSES. MUCH LESS
CHANCE FOR PRECIP ELSEWHERE, THOUGH PERHAPS A BRIEF BURST OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS COLD POOL ALOFT STEEPENS LAPSE RATES
AS IT MOVES ACROSS TUE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THE
PLAINS, AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY, AND WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS
FORECAST, WE'LL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER.
SOME WEAK TRAILING ENERGY MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING TUE
NIGHT, THOUGH TREND OF MOST MODELS/ENSEMBLES THE PAST 24 HRS IS
TOWARD A FASTER EXIT OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE AREA, WHICH SUGGEST
MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP ENDS BY EARLY WED. NBM STILL HOLDS ONTO
SOME ISOLATED POPS THROUGH THE DAY WED AS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS
WERE DEEPER/SLOWER, THOUGH EXPECT THESE PRECIP CHANCES TO
DISAPPEAR IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IF DRIER MODEL TREND CONTINUES.
IN FACT, IF SYSTEM EXITS AS FAST A 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SUGGEST, WE COULD END UP WITH POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
OVER THE ERN MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON.
FOR THU/FRI, HIGH FIRE DANGER RETURNS TO MUCH OF THE AREA, AS SW
FLOW INCREASES AGAIN AHEAD OF NEXT DIGGING WRN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH. SYSTEM THEN MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER AIR, THOUGH MODEL
STRENGTH AND TRACK DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WE GO
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT SAT APR 11 2006
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN CO THIS
AFTERNOON AFFECTING ALL THREE TERMINALS IN THE 18Z-00Z
TIMEFRAME. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BY 16-19Z, LATEST AT
KPUB, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ERRATIC GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
50 KTS, THOUGH 40KTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY AT THE TERMINALS UNLESS
THEY TAKE A DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT KCOS AND KPUB AS THE LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES EAST OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 23Z-00Z WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. KALS WILL SEE
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH AND BECOME LIGHT AFTER 06Z. ANY CIGS
OVER THE TERMINALS TODAY FROM -TSRA WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ220>222-
224>237.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ222-224-226>237.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...KT
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