685
FXUS65 KPUB 120358
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
958 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
- MOUNTAIN RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TUESDAY.
- HIGH FIRE DANGER RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH A POSSIBLY
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
CURRENTLY...AN EMBEDDED UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS TRIGGERED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND RATON MESA AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 60S AND 70S, WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY IS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO INTO THIS EVENING.
MOIST, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS KEPT DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
EAST OF I-25, AND RECENT ANALYSIS INDICATES SBCAPE VALUES IN THE
500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE, WHILE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NEAR 30 KTS. THERE
ARE A COUPLE OF THREATS THIS AFTERNOON, ONE BEING GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ENCOUNTER A DEEPER DRY SURFACE LAYER. AS STORMS
PROGRESS EAST INTO DEEPER MOISTURE, HAIL LOOKS TO BECOME AN
ADDED THREAT. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR, AND HAIL HALF TO 3/4 OF AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE TO THE EAST. HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTING EASTWARD QUICKLY, EXITING
INTO KANSAS BY 8 TO 9 PM. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL AFTER
THE MID EVENING HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY.
SUNDAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW BY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH HIGH FIRE DANGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS,
WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PICK UP BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS 30 TO 45 MPH EXPECTED. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA, AND EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM NICELY WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 60S
FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ONE THING THEY DO AGREE ON IS
CONTINUED HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE PLAINS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERSISTENT DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES,
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE
REGION. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BACK BELOW 10 PERCENT, AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS 35 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, LEADING TO THE
HIGH FIRE DANGER. EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR
BURNING ACTIVITIES. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND ADDED LAKE, CHAFFEE AND TELLER COUNTIES.
AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS, HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REACH BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
TUESDAY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF UTAH AND
INTO NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO MOVE
INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 9 KFT, WITH RAIN BELOW THAT. GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE
TROUGH, LIMITED IMPACTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE PALMER DIVIDE WHERE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO MAY
BE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FURTHER SOUTH, MORE WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER
HIGH FIRE DANGER DAY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW, AND WINDS
STRONGEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY, WITH
UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT, WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COOLER AIR WORKING INTO
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE
PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY
WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. UPPER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN GAP WIND PRONE AREAS
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. BY THURSDAY, THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES, BUT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK
AND TIMING ARISE. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MORE NORTHERLY AND
PROGRESSIVE, WITH PERIODS OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW, AND HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THE PLAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER UTAH, AND VERY SLOWLY
TRACK THE SYSTEM EAST, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. NBM GUIDANCE TRENDED WITH THE ECMWF WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 958 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL THREE
STATIONS, KCOS, KPUB, AND KALS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO
35KT ARE EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY OFF AND ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ220>222-
224>237.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ220>222-224-226>237.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...EHR
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