082
FXUS65 KPUB 122037
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
237 PM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
- RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
- FIRE DANGER INCREASES AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS INDICATING
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION, AS AN UPPER
LOW IS SPINNING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATING
WARM, BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AS OF 1 PM. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH
HAS HELPED TO MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH DEW PTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, SAVE FOR IN THE 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS AT THIS TIME.
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WITH WINDS DECOUPLING
THERE AFTER, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. CURRENT RED FLAG
WARNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH 9 PM REMAINS ON TRACK.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
EJECTS OFF THE WEST COAST LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE INCREASING OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND SLOW INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CONTDVD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, WITH WARM, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. LOWS
TONIGHT TO REMAIN MILD ONCE AGAIN, MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS,
AND IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY TO BE AROUND SUNDAY'S READINGS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MODEL DATA HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT, AS SAID WEST
COAST UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN OPEN WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, BEFORE CONTINUING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MORE NORTHERN TREND TO THIS PASSING WAVE WILL KEEP THE
SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED JET STREAM TRANSLATING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY
AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, WHERE WE HAVE ISSUED
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ON TUESDAY. FURTHER WEST, WILL SEE PERIODS OF RAIN AND
HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, WITH LOW END ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE CONTDVD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PASSING TUESDAY WAVE
WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT, AS THE SYSTEMS
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THURSDAY, AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACNW SYSTEM
PROGGED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MID WEEK.
WARM, BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS POINT TO SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS AND GAP FLOW AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...SAID UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LOOKS
TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY, WITH LATEST MODEL DATA
INDICATING A NORTHERN TRACK ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WOULD KEEP THE
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND THE CONTDVD AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE PASSING
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO WARMER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT COS, PUB AND ALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30KTS
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS TO DECOUPLE THROUGH THE EVENING, THOUGH
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, MAY REMAIN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY, ESPECIALLY AT ALS. THERE COULD ALSO BE LLWS
AT COS AND PUB OVERNIGHT, BEFORE WINDS MIX OUT AGAIN
THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ220>222-
224>237.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ220>222-
224>237.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ227>237.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
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