407
FXUS65 KPUB 131723
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH FIRE DANGER/RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE TODAY AND TUESDAY
- RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
- FIRE DANGER INCREASES AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AHEAD OF
ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 139 AM MDT MON APR 13 2026
WARM, DRY AND WINDY PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY, WITH UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND STRONG UPPER JET ACROSS COLORADO.
GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS A BIT HIGHER THAN SUN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
SAN LUIS VALLEY, AND WON'T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW 50 MPH
GUSTS OVER/NEAR THE SANGRES AS 7H FLOW IS AROUND 40 KTS AND 5H WINDS
CLOSE TO 50 KTS. LEAST WINDY SPOTS WILL BE NEAR THE KS BORDER WHERE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS, AND ALSO THROUGH PORTIONS OF
PUEBLO COUNTY, WHERE WEAK ELY GRADIENT KEEPS DEEPER MIXING AT
BAY UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON. MAXES AGAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH 80S ON THE PLAINS. AS TROUGH APPROACHES, COULD SEE
A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE DAY, THOUGH
HEAVIER PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH UTAH MONDAY NIGHT, THEN ACROSS COLORADO
TUESDAY INTO TUES NIGHT. SNOW INCREASES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
MON NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE SAN JUANS, WHERE SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF
UP TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE TUE, MAINLY ABOVE 9000
FEET. OVER THE REMAINING HIGH TERRAIN, PRECIP SLOWLY EXPANDS
EASTWARD STARTING TUE MORNING, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER MOST MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY. ON THE
PLAINS, STRONG W-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS,
WITH WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH AND HUMIDITY FALLING OFF TO AROUND
10 PERCENT. HAVE CONVERTED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUE TO A
RED FLAG WARNING, AS WE'LL HAVE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS BEFORE FRONT ARRIVES LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT, EXITING INTO THE PLAINS WED
MORNING. COULD SEE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA, HIGHEST POPS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE, WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER, WHILE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS MISS OUT ON MOST ACTIVITY.
MAY NEED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SAN JUANS AS STORM TOTAL SNOW
EDGES UPWARD TOWARD 8 INCHES, WHILE MOST REMAINING HIGHER
MOUNTAINS SEE LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE. SNOW LEVEL
FALLS LOW ENOUGH THAT WE COULD AT LEAST SEE A MIX OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE LATE TUE EVENING/WED MORNING, THOUGH NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION HERE. SYSTEM MOVES EAST WED MORNING,
WITH JUST SOME LINGERING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES BY SUNRISE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 139 AM MDT MON APR 13 2026
BRIEF UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SRN CO ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SPRINKLE/FLURRY
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN CONCERN WED IS
RETURN OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, AS LEE SURFACE
TROUGH DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS, WHILE AREAS OF GAP-FLOW ENHANCED
WINDS DEVELOP OVER/NEAR THE ERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE HELD OFF ON A
HIGHLIGHT AT THIS POINT, AS CRITICAL CONDITIONS LOOK RATHER
SPOTTY AND SHORT-LIVED, THOUGH FREMONT COUNTY COULD GET CLOSE
TO CRITERIA BY LATE DAY. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A HIGH FIRE DANGER
DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WRN U.S. AND DEEP W-SW FLOW REDEVELOPS ACROSS CO. TROUGH
THEN SWINGS THROUGH THE ROCKIES FRI/SAT, WITH STILL SOME SPREAD
IN TRACK/TIMING/STRENGTH EVIDENT. MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN GENERAL
HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON FRI, WHICH COULD LIMIT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT, THOUGH STILL A LOT TIMING CHANGES TO GO
BEFORE COMMITTING TO ANY SOLUTION THIS FAR OUT. SHOWER CHANCES
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRI INTO SAT AS TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH, THOUGH A GOOD DEAL OF DATA SUGGESTS A TRACK AGAIN
SLIGHTLY TOO FAR NORTH FOR HEAVY PRECIP OVER SRN CO. SYSTEM DOES
LOOK SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER THAN THE PAST FEW, AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MAY BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SRN CO BOTH SAT AND SUN
MORNINGS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT MON APR 13 2026
KCOS, KPUB, AND KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY AT THE START OF THIS TAF
PERIOD, WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. AS
DIURNAL MIXING STOPS THIS EVENING, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN
SOME, THOUGH WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-12 KNOTS. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID, KALS MAY BE IMPACTED FROM
SHOWERS PUSHING OFF OF THE SURROUNDING HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING.
BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM THESE SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ220>222-
224>237.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ227>237.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...SIMCOE
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