333
FXUS65 KPUB 131904
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
104 PM MDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW, AND AGAIN
THURSDAY.
- SNOW SHOWERS EXPAND IN COVERAGE TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
- ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK,
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 PM MDT MON APR 13 2026
TONIGHT: MONDAY NIGHT BRINGS ACTIVE WEATHER FOR SOME AND QUIETER
WEATHER TO OTHERS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION
OVERNIGHT, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN BOTH FORCING AND MOISTURE. WITH
OROGRAPHIC FORCING RISING, AND THE UPTICK IN MOISTURE, SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW
ALONG THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE WIND ORIENTATION.
WHILE THE VALLEYS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY, SOME SPILLAGE
ACROSS THE VALLEYS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE UPPER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES WITH AT
LEAST WEAK DOWNSLOPING WINDS IN PLACE AND SOME CLOUD COVER. WITH
THAT SAID, THE PLAINS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S, WITH POCKETS IN THE
UPPER 30S, THE VALLEYS INTO THE 30S, AND THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE
UPPER 10S TO 20S.
TOMORROW: HEADING INTO TUESDAY, ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES, WITH SNOW
FOR SOME AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR OTHERS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WILL BE SHEARING OUT/WEAKENING AS IT DOES
SO. EVEN SO, FORCING WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED. WHILE FORCING WILL
REMAINED HEIGHTENED, MOISTURE WILL START TO LESSEN, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A DRY SLOT ADVECTS ACROSS THIS LOCALIZED AREA.
WITH THAT ALL SAID, SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS,
THOUGH WILL START TO LESSEN IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE DECREASES. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ACROSS THE PIKES
PEAK REGION WHERE SPILLAGE OF SHOWERS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THESE
SHOWERS WOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST THOUGH, AS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE
LIMITS SUBCLOUD LAYER RAINFALL. IN ADDITION TO ALL OF THAT, FIRE
WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS WINDS INCREASE FROM
DIURNAL MIXING, AND THAT AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOT STARTS PUSHING INTO
THE AREA, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FIRES,
WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH AND HUMIDITY VALUES TANKING TO AROUND
13 PERCENT. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE
FOR THE REGION AS DOWNSLOPING WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS FOR THE PLAINS
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 80S, THE VALLEYS INTO THE 50S,
AND THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO 40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 PM MDT MON APR 13 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY: FOR THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME, A BRIEF PERIOD
OF QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO. THE WAVE FROM TUESDAY WILL BE EXITING THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EAST BY WEDNESDAY. WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE DECREASING ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE, LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING AREAWIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALONG WITH
THAT, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PULLED SOUTHWARD EARLY TUESDAY EVENING,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS LOW (20-30%) AT THIS
TIME. BEYOND ALL OF THAT, BREEZY, THOUGH LIGHTER, WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, VALUES WILL BE MORE
SEASONAL OVERNIGHT, AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY,
EVEN DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY - SUNDAY: FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, ACTIVE
WEATHER MAKES A RETURN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.
SYNOPTICALLY, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY, PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH RIDGING RETURNING FOR SUNDAY.
OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-70%) IN THIS BROADER
PATTERN, BUT THERE ARE STILL FINER DETAILS THAT WILL NEED TO BE
IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. REGARDLESS THOUGH, THIS PATTERN MAY
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AS WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THEN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND START
OF THE WEEKEND, PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE IS EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS,
THOUGH THIS IS ONE OF THOSE FINER DETAILS THAT IS STILL A BIT MURKY
AT THIS TIME, AND SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3
DAYS. DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AREAWIDE. BEYOND ALL OF THAT, WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL FLUCTUATE A BIT, WITH ABOVE
SEASONAL VALUES THURSDAY, THEN COOLING SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES, AND THEN SLOWING WARMING AGAIN
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT MON APR 13 2026
KCOS, KPUB, AND KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY AT THE START OF THIS TAF
PERIOD, WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. AS
DIURNAL MIXING STOPS THIS EVENING, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN
SOME, THOUGH WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-12 KNOTS. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID, KALS MAY BE IMPACTED FROM
SHOWERS PUSHING OFF OF THE SURROUNDING HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING.
BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM THESE SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ220>222-
224>237.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ227>237.
SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...SIMCOE
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