388
FXUS65 KPUB 141138
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
538 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY, WITH
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
- AFTER A BREAK WEDNESDAY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
RETURN TO MUCH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND POTENTIALLY
FRIDAY
- NEW STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FRI/SAT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW, ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN AZ THIS MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WRN HALF OF COLORADO AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW OVER WOLF CREEK AND MONARCH PASSES AS
OF 1 AM, THOUGH ROADS SO FAR LOOK MOSTLY WET TO SLUSHY IN SPOTS.
WITH SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING, WON'T BE TOO
SURPRISED IF PASSES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EVENTUALLY SEE
SOME SLUSHY/ICY ROADS BY SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY HIGHWAY 160 FROM
SOUTH FORK UP TO WOLF CREEK. MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SEE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNRISE, THOUGH PRECIP HERE WILL BE FAIRLY SPOTTY AND LIGHT.
UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO AND WEAKEN TODAY AND
TONIGHT, WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY. COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM
OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UNDER THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH. ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
PEAKS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WHERE STORM
TOTALS OF 3-6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING. ALONG I-25
AND ACROSS THE PLAINS, STRONG WEST WINDS DEVELOP LATE THIS
MORNING, CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS UPPER JET MOVES
OVERHEAD AND SURFACE LOW SPINS UP NEAR THE KS BORDER. EXPECT
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH TO BE COMMON FROM THE SANGRES EASTWARD,
PERHAPS A FEW 50 PLUS MPH GUSTS IN THE ENHANCED GAP FLOW REGION
NEAR WALSENBURG. RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
PLAINS/I-25 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AS HUMIDITY WILL FALL TOWARD 10
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDY ACROSS THE SANGRES AND SAN LUIS
VALLEY/UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY AS WELL, BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
HERE WILL BE MUCH HIGHER, TEMPERING FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT.
TONIGHT, COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE PLAINS IN THE EVENING,
ENDING THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT AS HUMIDITY INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDOW FOR SHOWERS ALONG I-25 IS
FAIRLY SMALL, LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE/EL PASO
COUNTY DURING THE EVENING, WITH A LEAST A THREAT OF A BRIEF MIX
OR PERIOD OF SNOW UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
DIVIDE AS SNOW LEVELS FALL TOWARD 7K FEET. SHOWER CHANCES
DIMINISH QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH, AS BEST DYNAMIC LIFT STAYS
NORTH. PRECIP ENDS QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EAST, WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES LEFT BY
SUNRISE.
ON WEDNESDAY, DRY, BREEZY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, WITH A FEW POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH
FREMONT COUNTY AS GAP WINDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HAVEN'T ISSUED A HIGHLIGHT HERE YET, AS DURATION AND AREAL
EXTENT OF ANY CRITICAL CONDITIONS LOOKS LIMITED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
HIGH FIRE DANGER RETURNS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY, AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE WRN U.S. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MOST OF THE
REGION FOR THU AFTERNOON/EVENING, AS VAST MAJORITY OF MODEL AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. TROUGH THEN SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES FRI, QUICKLY SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS ON SAT. WHILE
SYSTEM WILL BE COLDER THAN THE PAST FEW, TREND IN
MODEL/ENSEMBLES HAS BEEN FOR A MORE NORTHERN TRACK, KEEPING BEST
LIFT AND PRECIP OVER THE NRN HALF OF COLORADO, WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS SOUTH. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, MAY STILL SEE SOME CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS FRI AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, THOUGH FRONTAL TIMING HAS SLIGHTLY ACCELERATED, WITH
BOUNDARY NEAR THE NM BORDER BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON IN SOME OF THE
00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. STILL TOO EARLY FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS,
BUT EXPECT ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER DAY FOR AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. BEST WINDOW FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, WITH TREND
TOWARD A QUICKER TROUGH ENDING PRECIP BY EARLY SAT. STILL
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING TEMPS SAT
AND SUN MORNINGS, WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS AND 20S POSSIBLE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS, MAINLY 20S ON THE PLAINS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS, KPUB AND KALS.
MAIN CONCERNS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE INCREASING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AFFECTING TAF SITES, WITH GUSTS OF 35-40 KTS
POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 15Z AT KALS, AND 17Z AT KCOS AND KPUB - AND
LASTING THROUGH AROUND 03Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NW NORTHWEST
LATE AFTERNOON, THEN NW THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE LESSENING LATE.
INCLUDED VCSH WORDING FOR KALS THIS MORNING THROUGH 15Z. FARTHER
WEST, SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE CONTDVD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>222-224>237.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ227>237.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOORE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page