061
FXUS65 KPUB 142031
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
231 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PASSING SYSTEM TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS PIKES
PEAK REGION AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
- A DRY AND SEASONAL WEDNESDAY WITH SPOTTY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
- BREEZY AND WARM THURSDAY WITH THE RETURN OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
- NEXT STORM SYSTEM BRINGS COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATES UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
SPINNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLORADO, WITH DRIER AIR WITHIN THE
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STARTING TO FILTER ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS
TIME. STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS HELPED TO DEVELOP
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS
AT THIS TIME, WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
LATEST MODEL DATA REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SAID UPPER LOW WEAKENING
AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING,
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THEN CONTINUING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND
PALMER DVD REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE PASSING WAVES COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PASSING SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW, WITH
SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 7500 FEET THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSING WAVE.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOME MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
BEHIND SAID COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, WITH CURRENT RED FLAG
WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 8 PM MDT. COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
WAVE WILL BRING IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S ACROSS THE
PLAINS, WITH TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DRIER AIR WITHIN THE THE MODERATING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE TOMORROW, SAVE FOR A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AT TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND MAINLY
IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES
COULD BRING SOME SPOTTY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND
GAP PRONE AREAS, HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
LATEST MODEL DATA IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF INCREASING WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY, AS THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH OUT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. THIS WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE, AND WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS, SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY, WITH CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO REMAIN IN PLACE.
MODELS ARE TRENDING FASTER THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO BE COLDER THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS, WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN
TO BETWEEN 6000-7000 ON FRIDAY. THE QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO KEEP CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT BAY ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE PLAINS LIKELY BEING REACHED EARLY IN THE DAY, WITH COOLING AND
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BEING PROGGED BEHIND THE FRONT.
WITH THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE BEHIND THE PASSING SYSTEM, OVERNIGHT LOWS
LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW FREEZING IN THE TEENS AND 20S INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THOSE WHO MAY HAVE ALREADY TURNED ON IRRIGATION SYSTEMS OR
PLANTED WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND MAY WANT TO TAKE PROACTIVE
STEPS TO PREVENT ANY DAMAGE FROM THE PROJECTED SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S
CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER PERIOD OF AT AND BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WILL LEAD TO WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN EXPECTED AT COS, PUB AND ALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS AT COS AND PUB WILL BECOME GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 20-30KT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AS PREFRONTAL
TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE PLAINS. COS COULD SEE A BRIEF -SHRA
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON, BEFORE PASSING UPPER TROUGH SENDS
FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING AT COS AND PUB THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS
DIMINISH REMAINING GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS AT ALS TO REMAIN GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
25-35KT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON, BECOMING BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>222-224>237.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ227>237.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
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