121
FXUS65 KPUB 281143
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
543 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE CONTINUING TO BE
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
- RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TODAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25.
- COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER STILL ON TRACK STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN/HIGH
TERRAIN SNOW.
- WARMER AND DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 133 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION,
AS ONE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING OUT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO,
WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE NOT FAR BEHIND TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL RADARS HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTNS, AS WELL ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND INTO
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE DATA IS ALSO
INDICATING STRATUS STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION, WITH MOIST CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW PUSHING SOUTH AND WEST AT
THIS TIME.
THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE WILL KEEP SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CENTRAL MTNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MTNS,
MAINLY NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS. FURTHER EAST, STRATUS REMAINS EXPECTED
TO FILL IN ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH MID LEVEL WAA WITHIN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRATUS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE PLAINS, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY. STRATUS LOOKS
TO BREAK UP THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, FAVORING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AREA, NORTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR.
WITH GOOD MIXING, SHOULD SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW HOURS
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE GAP PRONE AREAS OF
THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR, BEFORE THE PASSING WAVES ASSOCIATED FRONT
BRINGS IN MORE MOISTURE AND WEAKER WINDS. HIGHS TODAY TO BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAYS READINGS, IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS,
WITH 30S, 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT TO BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES, HOWEVER, THEY LATEST RUNS ARE TRENDING FASTER AND
STRONGER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM, WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH.
WITH THAT SAID, CURRENT MODELS ARE INDICATING THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH STARTING TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH WAA LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION. A COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY, WITH MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT,
FAVORING AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, WHERE MODEST SFC-H7
EASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION. IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS REMAIN
TRUE, PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO WIND DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY, AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN,
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE THE GREATEST QPF OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER AND NEAR
THE EASTERN MTNS, WITH A 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WHILE ITS
TOO EARLY TO HONE IN SNOWFALL, SNOWLEVELS AROUND 8000-9000 FEET THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY COULD FALL TO AROUND 6000-7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
RISING AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL INCHES SNOW ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA, AS WELL AS HIGHER
END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE WILL BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
KALS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 24 HOURS. GUSTY WEST WINDS, 25-
30 KNOTS, WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS.
KCOS...
MVFR-IFR CIGS AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL LAST INTO MIDDAY, IMPROVING THE
REST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON, BETWEEN 22-00Z OR SO. WHILE NO PRECIP
IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL, OUTFLOW WINDS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
WIND DIRECTION, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF SHOWER
FORMATION IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION ANY OUTFLOW WINDS IN THIS
ROUND OF TAFS. HOWEVER, GUSTS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME WILL STILL BE 20-
25 KNOTS OR SO, LOCALLY ENHANCED TO AROUND 30 KNOTS IF SHOWERS DRIFT
CLOSER TO THE TERMINAL.
KPUB...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.
MEANWHILE, CLOUD CIGS WILL HOVER IN THE MVFR-IFR RANGE THROUGH ABOUT
MIDDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS, 25-30 KNOTS, WILL PICK UP AROUND 00Z,
DROPPING CIGS BACK TO MVFR AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.
SHOWERS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED NEAR THE TERMINAL TODAY, THOUGH
SOME DATA SHOWS SOME UPSLOPE-ENHANCED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY FORMING
RIGHT AROUND THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY LOW, BUT WILL MONITOR FOR UPDATES AS NEW MODEL RUNS COME
IN TODAY.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ224.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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