755
FXUS65 KPUB 282358
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
558 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA TODAY, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FOR SOME AREAS AS WELL.
- COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL AREAS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT..
WESTERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY, AND PORTIONS OF
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY ARE BEGINNING TO SEE 25 MPH WIND GUSTS AS OF
1230 THIS AFTERNOON. DEL NORTE HAS A 19% RH AS OF THIS WRITING, AND
ALAMOSA IS SITTING AT 15% DESPITE STILL HAVING VARIABLE WINDS.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY,
WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.
OUR GAP FLOW AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR ARE ALSO LIKELY
TO SEE SPOTTY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL, MAINLY THROUGH PORTIONS OF HUERFANO AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS
COUNTIES. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD OR LONG LIVED
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHLIGHTS IN THESE AREAS, BUT CAUTION IS STILL
ADVISED GIVEN OUR ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THE REST OF THE HIGH COUNTRY AND FOR OUR PLAINS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50, SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION, WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
OVERALL, MEANINGFUL MOISTURE AND COVERAGE BOTH LOOK TO BE LACKING
TODAY, BUT SPOTTY CHANCES FOR QUICK SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGH SUNSET. WE DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE SINKING ONTO THE PLAINS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH 20S FOR
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AND 30S TO 40S ON THE PLAINS.
TOMORROW..
MODELS BRING ANOTHER MESSY SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WHICH WILL ALLOW US TO WARM UP INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S FOR
MOST AREAS AHEAD OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN IN THE LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE, AND SPREAD SOUTHWARDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS BRING THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING IN COOLER, MOISTER
AIR, AND WILL DEVELOP UPSLOPE EVENTUALLY AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAIN SEASONAL, WITH INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA, AND ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY..
MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT DEEP AND PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW OVER OUR
PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW, THE BEST MOISTURE
AND LIFT COMES THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT EVENT TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
REGION, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS CONCENTRATED OVER EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE RAMPARTS, THE WETS, AND THE SANGRES, AND THE MOUNTAINS PLAINS
INTERFACE WEST OF I-25. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE TRICKY FOR
AREAS BELOW 8,000FT OR SO, WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FLIRTING WITH
THE FREEZING MARK OFF AND ON THROUGH THE EVENT. FOR NOW, SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO DROP DOWN TO 7000 OR EVEN 6000 FEET THURSDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL MEAN THAT A FEW INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE PALMER DIVIDE, THE RATON MESA, AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE
REST OF THE I- 25 CORRIDOR, AND ESPECIALLY THE REST OF EL PASO
COUNTY, IS LIKELY TO SEE PERIODS OF SNOW FALLING, BUT THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE IT HARD TO SEE ACTUAL ACCUMULATIONS. OUR
MOUNTAINS THOUGH LOOK TO DO WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND OUR
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY NEED HIGHLIGHTS AS THE TIMING
DRAWS NEARER AND MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THE DETAILS. EPS
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO DRAG THE BEST FORCING WAY SOUTH OF US BY
FRIDAY, BUT GEFS MEMBERS, AND THE DETERMINISTIC NAM BOTH MANAGE
TO KEEP FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES OVER AT LEAST
OUR MOUNTAINS THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM SCOOTS ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW, IT SEEMS WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL MODELS COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT UNTIL WE CAN BETTER
DETERMINE WHAT FRIDAY WILL LOOK LIKE PRECIP-WISE, BUT OUR
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS ALL
SOLUTIONS, WITH HIGHS ON THE PLAINS REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
SATURDAY ONWARDS..
OUR WEEKEND FORECAST IS EVEN MORE MESSY, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS KEEPING
PRECIP CHANCES OVER OUR MOUNTAINS AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY, AND OTHERS
DRYING US OUT MORE QUICKLY. IN EITHER CASE, TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN NEAR OR COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR SATURDAY, WITH WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY RETURNING BY SUNDAY AND
PERSISTING INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. MOST MODELS FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY OR SO,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND RIDGING OVER OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
WINDS WILL STAY PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT
WITH VFR CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN OVERNIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THESE COULD DIP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KCOS FOR A BRIEF TIME
WED AM, BUT WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA TOWARDS THE
TAIL END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD FOR BOTH KCOS AND KPUB.
KALS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DECREASING TOWARDS
02-03Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
-KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...KT
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