657
FXUS65 KPUB 291147
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
547 AM MDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY
IN THE PIKES PEAK REGION.
- COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST MTNS.
- POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT.
- WARMER AND DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND, THOUGH MAY BE ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 138 AM MDT WED APR 29 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS INDICATING
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
CONTINUED EMBEDDED WAVES TRANSLATING THROUGH THE FLOW AT THIS TIME.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO HAS SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGGING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF LARGE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. REGIONAL RADARS ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT ECHOES DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT THIS TIME, IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
LATEST HIGHER RES DATA INDICATES WAA SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OVER NIGHT AND DIMINISHING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY SUPPORTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST HREF INDICATES MEAN CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG AND JUST ENOUGH SHEAR
TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE PIKES PEAK REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN, COULD SEE LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS, WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
AROUND 9000 FT. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASING COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT, BUT DIFFER ON INTENSITY AND QPF
BULLEYES WITHIN THE WAA REGIME ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 AM MDT WED APR 29 2026
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DIFFERENCES
ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM, THOUGH CONSENSUS
DIGS A BAGGY TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY,
WITH SOME INDICATION OF SECONDARY ENERGY PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION ONGOING ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO.
AT ANY RATE, FOLLOWING MODEL CONSENSUS, WILL START TO SEE INCREASING COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BEFORE PRECIPITATION LIKELY WINDS DOWN FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. LATEST
DATA SUPPORTS SNOW LEVELS AROUND 8000-9000 FEET THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY,
FALLING TO AROUND 6500 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE RISING AGAIN THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY. BEST COVERAGE REMAINS OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, WHERE
MODEST SFC-H7 EASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES AND TOTALS.
THE OTHER WILD CARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION,
WHICH COULD GREATLY INFLUENCE SNOW LEVELS AND AMOUNTS. WITH THAT SAID, OUR FIRST
CRACK AT SNOW TOTALS SUPPORT 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS LOWER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MTNS, WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS. WITH TIGHT
GRADIENTS IN SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY, WE ISSUED BROAD WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THE
EASTERN MTNS WITH THIS PACKAGE, AND WILL SEE IF ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA SUPPORTS
WARNING OR ADVISORY AMOUNTS, OR BOTH. WE MAY NEED ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES FOR
THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF THE WET MTN VALLEY, THE
EASTERN SLOPES THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MTNS, PORTIONS OF THE RATON MESA AND
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE WILL BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, DEPENDING OF TIMING OF THE BROAD TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 547 AM MDT WED APR 29 2026
KALS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 24 HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING. MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD, HOVERING
RIGHT AROUND HIGH-MVFR.
KCOS...
WINDS WILL STAY SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH MOST OF TODAY, WITH MVFR CIGS.
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
STARTING AROUND 18Z, LIKELY IMPACTING THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 20-00Z.
PASSING STORMS WILL CREATE ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS AT OR ABOVE 30
KNOTS, WITH LOWERED CIGS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL THIS EVENING, MORE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ROLL THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.
KPUB...
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS IN THE LOW-VFR TO HIGH-MVFR RANGE. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TERMINAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON, STARTING AROUND 21Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION OVER KPUB DOESN'T INCREASE UNTIL
AFTER 00-02Z OR SO. LEFT AS PROB30 FOR NOW DUE TO SPARSE COVERAGE OF
EXPECTED SHOWERS. CLOUDS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, LIKELY REMAINING IN MVFR TO HIGH-IFR.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ072>075-079-080.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR COZ081-082.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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