253
FXUS65 KPUB 291755
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1155 AM MDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY
IN THE PIKES PEAK REGION.
- COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST MTNS.
- POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT.
- WARMER AND DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND, THOUGH MAY BE ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 138 AM MDT WED APR 29 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS INDICATING
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
CONTINUED EMBEDDED WAVES TRANSLATING THROUGH THE FLOW AT THIS TIME.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO HAS SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGGING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF LARGE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. REGIONAL RADARS ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT ECHOES DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT THIS TIME, IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
LATEST HIGHER RES DATA INDICATES WAA SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OVER NIGHT AND DIMINISHING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY SUPPORTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST HREF INDICATES MEAN CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG AND JUST ENOUGH SHEAR
TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE PIKES PEAK REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN, COULD SEE LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS, WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
AROUND 9000 FT. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASING COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT, BUT DIFFER ON INTENSITY AND QPF
BULLEYES WITHIN THE WAA REGIME ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 AM MDT WED APR 29 2026
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DIFFERENCES
ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM, THOUGH CONSENSUS
DIGS A BAGGY TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY,
WITH SOME INDICATION OF SECONDARY ENERGY PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION ONGOING ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO.
AT ANY RATE, FOLLOWING MODEL CONSENSUS, WILL START TO SEE INCREASING COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BEFORE PRECIPITATION LIKELY WINDS DOWN FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. LATEST
DATA SUPPORTS SNOW LEVELS AROUND 8000-9000 FEET THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY,
FALLING TO AROUND 6500 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE RISING AGAIN THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY. BEST COVERAGE REMAINS OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, WHERE
MODEST SFC-H7 EASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES AND TOTALS.
THE OTHER WILD CARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION,
WHICH COULD GREATLY INFLUENCE SNOW LEVELS AND AMOUNTS. WITH THAT SAID, OUR FIRST
CRACK AT SNOW TOTALS SUPPORT 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS LOWER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MTNS, WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS. WITH TIGHT
GRADIENTS IN SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY, WE ISSUED BROAD WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THE
EASTERN MTNS WITH THIS PACKAGE, AND WILL SEE IF ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA SUPPORTS
WARNING OR ADVISORY AMOUNTS, OR BOTH. WE MAY NEED ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES FOR
THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF THE WET MTN VALLEY, THE
EASTERN SLOPES THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MTNS, PORTIONS OF THE RATON MESA AND
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE WILL BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, DEPENDING OF TIMING OF THE BROAD TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT WED APR 29 2026
KCOS...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT KCOS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z. DIFFICULT TO TIME SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR OFF AND ON OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED THIS
EVENING, THEN A POSSIBLE BREAK AROUND THE 06Z TIME FRAME, AND
ANOTHER ROUND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD STAY RAIN AT THE TERMINAL THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME LOW ODDS FOR A -RASN MIX JUST BEYOND THE 24 HOUR
TAF VALID PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE INTENSE SHOWERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS COULD COME CLOSE TO THE IFR CATEGORY
THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST. LATER
TAFS WILL LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT THIS.
KPUB...SIMILARLY DIFFICULT TO TIME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH BEST CHANCES WILL COME IN THIS
EVENING. A BRIEF BREAK IN -SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SPREADS IN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, JUST BEYOND THE TAF VALID PERIOD. CIGS WILL
WAVER BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR.
KALS WILL BE DRIER WITH WIND SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS. A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST
TO EAST WILL COME IN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE LIKELY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, JUST BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF VALID PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.
-KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ072>075-079-080.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR COZ081-082.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
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