461
FXUS65 KPUB 291956
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
156 PM MDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING,
WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND NORTHERN
EL PASO COUNTY.
- COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY. WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SANGRES, THE WETS, AND TELLER COUNTY, AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY AS WELL.
- WE WARM UP AND DRY OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 154 PM MDT WED APR 29 2026
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT..
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. LIGHTNING HAS BEGUN OVER NORTHERN EL PASO AND TELLER
COUNTY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, KICKING OFF OUR MUCH
ANTICIPATED 2 TO 3 DAY RAIN AND SNOW EVENT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT, AS RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH BEHIND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO REMAIN WARM ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP TYPES FALLING AS RAIN
TONIGHT.
TOMORROW..
THE PALMER DIVIDE MAY SEE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO SOME FLURRIES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT ACCUMULATIONS ON OUR WARM SOILS ARE NOT
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE EVENT ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS
BECOME DUE EASTERLY BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING, HELPING TO DEEPEN
UPSLOPE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO SPREAD RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO PAINT EVENT TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE
PLAINS, WITH THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF I-25, AND THE LOWER END ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS. EVEN HIGHER TOTALS ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS, WHERE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR SOME AREAS. THESE AREAS INCLUDE THE SANGRES,
THE WETS, AND TELLER COUNTY, TO INCLUDE PIKES PEAK. ALL OF THESE
AREAS HAVE BEEN PLACED UNDER WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY NIGHT, DEPENDING ON
LOCATION. ALL OF THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE TOTALS IN THE 8
INCHES TO 2 FEET OF SNOW RANGE, DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WET MOUNTAIN
VALLEY, NORTHERN FREMONT COUNTY, EASTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY, AND EASTERN
LAKE COUNTY, WHERE SNOW TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED.
FOR ALL AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN ADDED TO HIGHLIGHTS SO FAR, THURSDAY
EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON THE
PALMER DIVIDE WILL ALSO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, WHEN TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FINALLY DIP BELOW FREEZING.
THIS MAY EFFECT THE THURSDAY EVENING COMMUTE, BUT WILL MORE
LIKELY IMPACT THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES
BEGIN OVER THE SAN JUANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 PM MDT WED APR 29 2026
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY..
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY, AND RAIN ON THE
PLAINS, EVENTUALLY COMES TO AN END FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. FOR NOW, ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS LOOK
TO END FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALL AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH OUR
WETS AND SANGRES DROPPING OFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SAN JUANS LOOK
TO KEEP HEAVIER SNOWFALL OVER THEIR AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
FRIDAY, WITH SNOW EVENTUALLY COMING TO AN END FOR ALL AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY REMAIN MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL. WITH CLOUDY AND WET CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR MOST AREAS,
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S LOOK LIKELY. AS CLEAR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP, OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DIP DOWN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR
MUCH OF THE PLAINS. WE WARM UP HEADING INTO SATURDAY, AS
ANOTHER LITTLE SYSTEM TRIES TO DIP DOWN TO OUR SOUTH AND WE SIT
IN SHORTWAVE RIDGING. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE
60S AND LOW 70S FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND PLAINS FOR SATURDAY FOR
NOW, BUT SLIGHT CHANGES IN WHERE THE MESSY FEATURES OF THIS
WEEKEND END UP COULD CHANGE THIS FORECAST. THE LITTLE SYSTEM TO
OUR SOUTH ALSO LOOKS TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY FOR SATURDAY.
SUNDAY ONWARDS..
MODELS DEVELOP A RIDGE OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY OR SO,
ALLOWING US TO WARM BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AS
A LOW SITS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS AS SOUTHWEST FLOWS DEVELOPS, DEPENDING
ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEMS PROGRESSION, THOUGH IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS TO BRING THE FEATURE EASTWARDS TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT WED APR 29 2026
KCOS...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT KCOS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z. DIFFICULT TO TIME SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR OFF AND ON OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED THIS
EVENING, THEN A POSSIBLE BREAK AROUND THE 06Z TIME FRAME, AND
ANOTHER ROUND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD STAY RAIN AT THE TERMINAL THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME LOW ODDS FOR A -RASN MIX JUST BEYOND THE 24 HOUR
TAF VALID PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE INTENSE SHOWERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS COULD COME CLOSE TO THE IFR CATEGORY
THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST. LATER
TAFS WILL LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT THIS.
KPUB...SIMILARLY DIFFICULT TO TIME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH BEST CHANCES WILL COME IN THIS
EVENING. A BRIEF BREAK IN -SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SPREADS IN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, JUST BEYOND THE TAF VALID PERIOD. CIGS WILL
WAVER BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR.
KALS WILL BE DRIER WITH WIND SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS. A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST
TO EAST WILL COME IN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE LIKELY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, JUST BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF VALID PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.
-KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO NOON MDT FRIDAY
FOR COZ058-063-076-078.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ072>075-079-080.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR
COZ081-082.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...KT
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