565
FXUS65 KPUB 301824
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1224 PM MDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER REMAINS ON TAP THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY
OVER AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MTNS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
- POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FREEZE/FROST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT.
- WARMER AND DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND, THOUGH MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- MORE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 105 AM MDT THU APR 30 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL
RADARS ARE INDICATING SHOWERS, WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSING EMBEDDED WAVE, ACROSS THE EASTERN MTNS INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS AT THIS TIME. PASSING SHOWERS DID BRING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE PIKES PEAK REGION, WITH
CDOT WEBCAMS INDICATING SOME SLUSHY ROADS IN CASCADE AND WOODLAND PARK
EARLIER THIS EVENING, THOUGH ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING GENERALLY WET ROADS
AS SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY ACROSS TELLER COUNTY. FURTHER
EAST, CDOT CAMS AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RAIN INTO WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY, AS WELL AS EASTERN FREMONT INTO
PUEBLO COUNTY AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT, PHASE ONE OF OUR MULTIFACETED WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SHOWERS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, WITH
UVV AND WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES TO
PUSH EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST
HIGHER RES MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN LIQUID,
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
EL PASO COUNTY, WITH LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS
POSSIBLE ACROSS TELLER COUNTY OVERNIGHT.
THERE LOOKS TO BE LULL IN PRECIPITATION OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EARLY IN THE MORNING, AS WELL AS ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER PHASE ONE
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO KANSAS, BEFORE PHASE 2 KICKS IN, AS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER INCREASE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY, ESPECIALLY
OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN MTNS INTO THE UPPER ARKANSAS AND WET MTN VALLEY,
AS ALBEIT WEAK SFC-H7 EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN.
RAIN AND SNOW, WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 7000-8000 FEET, CONTINUES THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 6000-7000 FEET THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEFORE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH THAT SAID, CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN ON TRACK, WITH 8 TO 16 INCHES ACROSS THE RAMPARTS, WETS AND
SANGRES, WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS EAST FACING SLOPES. SNOWFALL OF 5
TO 10 INCHES REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FREMONT COUNTY AND
THE EASTERN SLOPES CENTRAL MTNS WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WET MTN
VALLEY. A FEW INCHES, MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS, WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE TIGHT GRADIENTS IN SNOWFALL AND ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATEST MODELS DO INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MTNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND
WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY WHEN IT GETS CLOSER IN TIME. OTHERWISE,
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN AND ENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. WITH CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT, THERE COULD BE AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 105 AM MDT THU APR 30 2026
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND, AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM LOOKING TO BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MDT THU APR 30 2026
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD ARE WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WITH MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS.
RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A LULL IN THE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT HERE
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND ANTICIPATE THIS TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BY MID AFTERNOON, EXPECT COVERAGE AND
EVEN INTENSITY OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY AT
COS AND PUB. FOR ALS, DEVELOPMENT DOES SPREAD SOUTH BUT WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT IMPACTS AND DURATION, HAVE MAINTAINED
THE PROB30 GROUP FOR SHOWERS. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR COS
AND PUB FOR THESE SHOWERS AND MADE NO CHANGES TO THIS IN THE
PREVAILING GROUPS. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR COS AND PUB, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDER STILL
EXPECTED AT COS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDER CHANCES QUICKLY END EARLY THIS EVENING, THOUGH RAIN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE AT PUB AND COS. THINKING PRECIP TYPE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN, BUT
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, A PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE
AT COS. SO, DID INCLUDE PROB30 GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME, IMPACTS FROM ANY SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED.
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE AT COS
AND PUB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND LIKELY FALL TO
IFR FOR COS FOR A PERIOD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL IMPROVING
TRENDS LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS GENERALLY STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH EVEN A
DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THEM. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT ALS, WHERE A
PERIOD OF GUSTIER NORTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ058-063-
076-078.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ072>075-079-080.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ081-082.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ
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