917
FXUS65 KPUB 301916
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
116 PM MDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT TOMORROW.
- TRAVEL IMPACTS LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGH COUNTRY,
WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW.
- THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY ARE LIKELY TO SEE A FEW
INCHES OF WET, SLUSHY SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY
ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
- NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ON THE PLAINS.
- A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT THU APR 30 2026
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT..
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LIGHTNING IS NOT PRESENT YET, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
CLEARING OVER FREMONT COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN SANGRES THAT WE
MAY BEGIN TO SEE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
RATES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN
THE 40S ON THE PLAINS, WITH SPRINGFIELD AND ALAMOSA BOTH SITTING
AT 54F AS OF NOON, AND FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF EL PASO
COUNTY SITTING IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS LULL IN PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS, BEFORE ENOUGH
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY PUSH OFF THE MOUNTAINS TO INITIATE OUR
STRONGER CONVECTION IN PLACES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS BETTER
FORCING ARRIVES. THIS WILL INCREASE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND UPSLOPE
DEEPENS OVER OUR REGION. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL
LIQUID RAIN BELOW 8000 FEET THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS, WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO 7000 OR EVEN BRIEFLY 6000
FEET OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. FOR
THE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THOUGH, ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE
PLAINS, BUT MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING NEAR SUNRISE. ACCUMULATIONS IN
THESE AREAS MAY REACH 2 TO 4 INCHES AT MOST ON ELEVATED
SURFACES, BUT ROADS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WET THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT.
TOMORROW..
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE MORNING MAY HELP TO CHANGE
SOME RAIN OVER TO FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME AREAS, BUT TRAVEL
IMPACTS AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER PUSH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE TROUGH TO
OUR WEST PUSHES PAST US THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS, KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALIVE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE BETTER FORCING DRIFTING SOUTH
THOUGH, CHANCES COME TO AN END FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS NEXT PUSH OF
ENERGY DOES BRING IN SOME BETTER SNOW CHANCES FOR THE SAN JUANS LATE
TOMORROW MORNING INTO SATURDAY MORNING THOUGH, WHICH WILL
DEFINITELY HELP THEM TO NOT FEEL SO LEFT OUT. QPF TOTALS HAVE
COME DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE SAN JUANS WITH THIS MODEL RUN,
SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ADVISORIES ONCE AGAIN, BUT TOTALS LOOK TO
BE IN THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE OVER THE SAN JUANS FOR TOMORROW. AS
CLEARING HAPPENS ON OUR PLAINS THOUGH, DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DIP DOWN CLOSE TO
FREEZING UNDER CLEARING SKIES ON THE PLAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE HELD
OFF ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS, GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO ONLY
BRIEFLY APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT THU APR 30 2026
SATURDAY..
RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
REMNANTS OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOK TO LINGER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION FOR A BIT, HELPING TO KEEP CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND OUR SOUTHERN
PLAINS. CONVECTION DOES NOT LOOK TO BE SEVERE, BUT ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP SHOULD MANAGE TO BRING WETTING RAINS. ON THE PLAINS,
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED, AND DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS LOOK TO
WARM INTO 60S AND 70S WITH FAIRLY WEAK WINDS.
SUNDAY ONWARDS..
RIDGING CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ALLOWING OUR WARMING AND
DRYING TREND TO CONTINUE. HIGHS LOOK TO RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S ON
THE PLAINS FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY, AS MODELS PUSH A LOW
ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INCHES TOWARDS OUR
FORECAST AREA. MODELS STILL SHOW A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE
TRACK AND PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS TO
WEAKEN BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TOWARDS
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. AS IT COMES THROUGH, CHANCES FOR A COOLER AND
WETTER PATTERN WILL LIKELY EMERGE DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK AND TIMING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MDT THU APR 30 2026
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD ARE WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WITH MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS.
RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A LULL IN THE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT HERE
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND ANTICIPATE THIS TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BY MID AFTERNOON, EXPECT COVERAGE AND
EVEN INTENSITY OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY AT
COS AND PUB. FOR ALS, DEVELOPMENT DOES SPREAD SOUTH BUT WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT IMPACTS AND DURATION, HAVE MAINTAINED
THE PROB30 GROUP FOR SHOWERS. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR COS
AND PUB FOR THESE SHOWERS AND MADE NO CHANGES TO THIS IN THE
PREVAILING GROUPS. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR COS AND PUB, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDER STILL
EXPECTED AT COS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDER CHANCES QUICKLY END EARLY THIS EVENING, THOUGH RAIN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE AT PUB AND COS. THINKING PRECIP TYPE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN, BUT
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, A PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE
AT COS. SO, DID INCLUDE PROB30 GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME, IMPACTS FROM ANY SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED.
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE AT COS
AND PUB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND LIKELY FALL TO
IFR FOR COS FOR A PERIOD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL IMPROVING
TRENDS LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS GENERALLY STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH EVEN A
DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THEM. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT ALS, WHERE A
PERIOD OF GUSTIER NORTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ058-063-
076-078.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ072>075-079-080.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ081-082.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ
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