768
FXUS65 KPUB 011129
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
529 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
- DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP FOR THE WEEKEND!
- A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM EARLY
THE MID NEXT WEEK, WITH MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW AND RAIN ON THE
PLAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
CURRENTLY...RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS,
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 EARLY THIS MORNING, WHILE A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN TO THE NORTH. SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE 30S AND 40S,
AND WILL COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, EXTENDING FROM
MINNESOTA, SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
LIGHT LOWER ELEVATION RAINFALL, AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW ALONG
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAINS, RANGES, AND RATON MESA
AND NEW MEXICO BORDER AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY ENDING
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
INTO COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY, WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS, MAINLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD HAPPEN
GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9 KFT WILL SEE
SNOW. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS, THERE COULD BE
POCKETS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAN JUAN
RANGE, WHICH COULD PRODUCE QUICK ACCUMULATIONS AND BRIEF TRAVEL
ISSUES DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY. CAUTION IS ADVISED IF YOU
ENCOUNTER ONE OF THESE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 50S ACROSS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY, WHILE THE PLAINS REACH THROUGH THE 50S INTO THE LOWER
60S.
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL FALL OFF ACROSS THE FOR NORTHERN
AREAS BY MIDDAY TODAY, AND REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS
OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST TRENDS, THIS MAY BE A BIT LONG, AND THE
DAY CREW MAY CONSIDER PULLING THEM DOWN A BIT EARLY IF THESE
TRENDS CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME, AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES MAY
BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST INTO COLORADO OVERNIGHT.
ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LOOK TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING ONCE THE SUN SETS AND INSTABILITY DECREASES. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 30S, AND THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY WANT TO
TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEM.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
OVERALL, MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
WITH THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS COLORADO BY MID WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL, AND RAIN
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SPREAD ACROSS
COLORADO OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED WARMING. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM THROUGH THE 60S AND 70S ON SATURDAY, AND INTO THE 70S
AND 80S FOR SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
BOTH DAYS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES LOOK TO
IMPACT THE REGION FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE FIRST, IS FORECAST
TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO ON MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER, MORE
IMPACTFUL STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST UPPER
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF UTAH, AND INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO ON MONDAY. HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD INTO TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY MONDAY MORNING, AND
CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO BY MONDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED OT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF MAY BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY.
THE MORE IMPACTFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO COLORADO ON TUESDAY, AND
TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE BY THE AFTERNOON.
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE FOCUS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS,
SOUTH INTO THE RATON MESA. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN QPF AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT, WITH BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH OF LIQUID
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, INTO THE RATON MESA REGION.
TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AS
RAINFALL, WITH SNOW CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9-10 KFT.
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO COME TO AN END ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OF TUESDAY, WITH 50S AND 60S FOR HIGHS ON
THE PLAINS, COOLING FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY BY A FEW DEGREES.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY, WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. WEAK ENERGY AND MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO REBOUND, WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KALS...
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL LINGER OVER THE VALLEY, OCCASIONALLY
PASSING OVER THE TERMINAL BETWEEN NOW AND ABOUT 15Z. LOW MVFR CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY, WITH CIGS NEAR OR BELOW 5KFT
MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING AS SHOWERS MOVE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, POSSIBLY BETWEEN
02-05Z OR SO.
KCOS...
CLOUDS WILL HOVER IN THE LOW-VFR TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
MOST OF TODAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
PALMER THIS AFTERNOON, AND THOUGH NO PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED AT KCOS, VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF ALONG WITH BRIEFLY
LOWERED CLOUDS. VFR AND LIGHTER WINDS RETURN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
KPUB...
WEAK WEST WINDS AND MVFR TO HIGH-IFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WINDS TURN
SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY, WITH LOW CLOUDS DECREASING AND VFR RETURNING
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAKER WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT, WITH MVFR
CLOUDS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE WE CLEAR INTO THE EARLY HOURS
OF SATURDAY.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ058-063-
076-078.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>075-
079-080.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ081-082.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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