220
FXUS65 KPUB 020504
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1104 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE SAN JUANS AND THE SOUTHERN SANGRES
THROUGH TONIGHT.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW
AFTERNOONS, MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH AN
OVERALL WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING RAINS ON THE PLAINS AND ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR THE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNING EARLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT..
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THROUGH THE
TROUGH AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGH COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WITH SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAN JUANS AND THE
SOUTHERN SANGRES. AFTER A BIT OF A LULL THIS MORNING, ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN
ABOVE 8000 FEET OR SO, WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SNOW FOR PEAK
ABOVE THIS ELEVATION THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING AND UPSLOPE WILL BE
BEST FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING, WHERE A QUICK 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL LOOKS TO
BE POSSIBLE BY TOMORROW MORNING. SNOWFALL CONTINUES OVER THE
SOUTHERN SANGRES AS WELL, SO HAVE LEFT THIS AREA IN A WINTER STORM
WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH THIS PACKAGE. THAT SAID,
SNOWFALL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARDS MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS AND DIPS SOUTH, SO OUR SANGRES MAY END UP BEING
DROPPED FROM WARNING STATUS EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
SPEAKING OF EARLY CLEARING, CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK WINDS WILL LEAD
TO VERY EFFICIENT COOLING TONIGHT, WHICH HAS LED TO THE
ISSUANCE OF A WIDESPREAD FROST ADVISORY FOR OUR PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF OUR
LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS TONIGHT, WHICH MAY BE HARMFUL TO
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS!
TOMORROW..
CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP US TO WARM QUICKLY IN THE MORNING, WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE NEAR NORMAL RANGE BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 60S FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, THE PIKES PEAK
REGION, AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR, TO 70S FOR THE REST OF OUR
PLAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE
DRY AND SUNNY TOMORROW, BUT OUR WESTERN MOUNTAIN WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHEST
PEAKS OF THE LA GARITAS AND THE SAN JUANS, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO REMAIN MILD, NEAR SEASONAL, AND FROST-
FREE FOR OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
SUNDAY..
AS THE RIDGE SCOOTS OVERHEAD SUNDAY OUR TEMPERATURES JUMP UP ANOTHER
10 OR SO DEGREES FROM SATURDAY, BRINGING US BACK INTO THE WARMER
THAN NORMAL RANGE. MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LOOK TO STAY IN TO MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S, WITH ALL OF OUR PLAINS WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S.
MODELS KEEP US IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS IT DECAYS A
BIT ON SUNDAY, WHICH LEADS TO GUSTIER WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH OUR GAP FLOWS. AT THIS TIME, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE
IN THE LARGER SCALE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY ONWARDS..
MODELS BRING MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FURTHER INTO OUR AREA BY MONDAY,
ALLOWING FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. DAYTIME HIGHS REMAIN WARMER THAN
NORMAL ON MONDAY FOR NOW, WITH MODELS BRINGING A COLD FRONT IN
SOMETIME LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY FROM A TROUGH PASSING TO OUR
NORTHEAST. AS THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST GETS DRAGGED INTO THE
LARGER SCALE TROUGHING, WE LOOK TO SEE THE BENEFITS IN TERMS OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARDS THE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, WETTING RAINS FOR THE
PLAINS AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY LOOK TO BE
POSSIBLE FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST BY THURSDAY, KEEPING US IN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE END OF OUR WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KCOS AND KPUB WILL REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF VALID PERIOD.
KALS WILL SEE QUICKLY CLEARING SKIES AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR
TO LIFR CIGS/FOG IN THE 10Z TO 14Z TIMEFRAME. CIGS WILL BREAK
WITH CLEARING SKIES, VFR CONDITIONS, AND LIGHT WINDS AFTER
15-16Z. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ083>089-093>099.
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...KT
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