019
FXUS65 KPUB 021123
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
523 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND AREAS OF FOG FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY.
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND.
- A STORM SYSTEM WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR MID WEEK, WITH DETAILS STILL BEING WORKED OUT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
CURRENTLY...CLOUDS ACROSS REGION CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL, WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS
BY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FROST ON THE PLAINS, AND
SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE HARMED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE COULD ALSO BE AREAS OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT, WHILE WEAK ENERGY OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO.
OVERALL, IT WILL BE A VERY NICE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 60S AND 70S
ACROSS THE PLAINS, WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY REACHES THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. A FEW RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE
SAN JUAN RANGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE CONFINED TO ABOVE 10 KFT,
WHERE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DO FORM, MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
PLAINS, WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLY FALLS INTO THE 20S AND 30S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH
AN ACTIVE PATTERN MID WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS
INCLUDES COOLER WEATHER, RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SIT ACROSS
COLORADO ON SUNDAY, WHILE TWO UPPER SYSTEMS, ONE OVER CANADA,
AND A SECOND OFF THE WEST COAST, BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA.
OVERALL, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY, WITH A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM, WITH 70S AND 80S FOR
HIGHS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BY MONDAY, THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER
CANADA WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTH, WHILE THE WEST COAST SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE GREAT BASIN SYSTEM, WITH A FEW AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS. AN EMBEDDED UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SHOWERS FROM THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE TWO UPPER SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE NORTHERN
TROUGH WILL END A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ALOFT, THE GREAT BASIN SYSTEM WILL SEND MOISTURE NORTH
ACROSS COLORADO. COLDER AIR WILLA ADVECT SOUTHWARD LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TO NEAR 6000 FT BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION COULD BE HEAVY, FROM THE PALMER
DIVIDE, SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, AND INTO THE RATON
MESA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL MAY NEED TO COME DOWN MORE (WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S AND 40S). A
SECONDARY SURGE FROM THE NORTH WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
CONTINUED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THIS
TIME, QPF AMOUNTS ARE NEARLY AND INCH, BUT WILL MOST LIKELY BE
ADJUSTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR THOSE ABOVE 6000
FEET, DENSE WET SNOWFALL COULD ACCUMULATE ON TREES AND
POWERLINES CAUSING DAMAGE. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REBUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES, WHILE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS
WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO REBOUND WITH
70S TO 80S BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KCOS AND KPUB: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, AROUND AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS,
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH NO APPRECIABLE GUSTS. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED.
KALS: IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE VERY START OF THIS
TAF PERIOD, WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS
DURING EARLY TO MID MORNING. FOG IS CURRENTLY ONGOING AT THE TAF
SITE, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EARLY INTO THE MORNING. THIS FOG
SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING AS TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA
SLOWLY RISE. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, LESS THAN 10 KNOTS,
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ083>089-
093>099.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...SIMCOE
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