177
FXUS65 KPUB 022341
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
541 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING AND DRYING TREND BEGINS TODAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING
POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING RAINS AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS
FORECAST FOR THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME, WHICH COULD
BRING WIDESPREAD IMPACTS TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1259 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT..
AS OF 1230, TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS
THE PLAINS, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE PLAINS AND SOME PUFFY
CUMULUS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH A DECAYING
LOBE OF ENERGY SOUTH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGHOUT THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS REMAIN DRY
THOUGH, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S FOR MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS, THE PIKES PEAK REGION, AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR, AND
70S FOR THE REST OF OUR PLAINS. WINDS LOOK TO STAY LIGHT FOR ALL
AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH
20S AND 30S FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ON THE
PLAINS.
TOMORROW..
RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW, BUT WEAKENS AS
IT DOES SO. MODELS PLACE US IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
BY THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY INCREASED WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY. GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SO
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER OUR HIGHEST PEAKS TOMORROW, WITH GUSTS TO 20
MPH THROUGH OUR GAP FLOWS. AT THIS TIME, STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO OVERLAP WITH ANY CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES,
WHICH SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT BAY FOR OUR SUNDAY FOR
ALL AREAS. A LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THOUGH, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OTHER AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE WARMER THAN NORMAL RANGE.
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ARE LIKELY FOR OUR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WITH 70S
AND 80S ON OUR PLAINS. INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS A BIT WARMER AS WELL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS ONLY COOLING INTO THE MID 30S AND 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
MONDAY..
MODELS BRING THE LOW ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY, INCREASING
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY, SPREADING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS INCREASE ON MONDAY, SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SPOTTY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY, WHERE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST, THOUGH
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INT OTHER 60S AND LOW 70S FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS,
AND MID 70S TO MID 80S ON THE PLAINS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY..
THE MAIN PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS ON TRACK,
THOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS TRENDED COLDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE MODEL
RUNS. GENERAL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SEND A LARGE TROUGH SOUTHWARDS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST, WHILE THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST MOVES INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY THE TIME THIS LOW APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, MODELS ABSORB IT INTO THE NORTHERN TROUGH. THIS IS AN
EARLIER/MORE NORTHERLY/COLDER PROGRESSION THAN WHAT MODELS PORTRAYED
AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY, AND SO CHANCES FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES,
LOWER SNOW LEVELS, AND MORE SNOW THAN RAIN COULD BE EMERGING AS
FORECAST DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. FOR NOW, HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
TEMPERATURES COOLER FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHICH HAS IN
TURN PUSHED SNOW CHANCES INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TIMING LOOKS BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, THOUGH THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR ADJUSTMENT. CURRENT TRENDS POINT TOWARDS IMPACTS
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY, AND
CLEARING THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR ALL
ELEVATIONS, SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE VERY DENSE WITH THE SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM DRAGGING IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAVY,
WET SNOW, WHICH MAY MELT OFF OF ROADS QUICKLY, BUT COULD ALSO LEAD
TO DOWNED TREE BRANCHES AND POWER LINES IN SOME AREAS. AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THE DETAILS OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM,
IMPACTS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR. FOR NOW, IT SEEMS THAT ANOTHER ROUND
OF VERY BENEFICIAL WETTING RAINS AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LIKELY
FOR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
THURSDAY ONWARDS..
MODELS PUSH THE SYSTEM PAST US BY THURSDAY, LEAVING US IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT, DIURNAL WIND REGIMES ARE
EXPECTED AT COS, PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...MW
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