976
FXUS65 KPUB 030708
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
108 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE MONDAY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
- A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE PLAINS.
- WE QUICKLY DRY OUT AND WARM BACK UP FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES HAVE CALLED
INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS, WITH A FEW DEGREES FURTHER
COOLING THROUGH SUNRISE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES TO WARM NICELY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH 70S AND 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND 60S FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MOUNTAIN RANGES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ELSEWHERE, THE PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS, WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
WILL SEE 30S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
WITH SHIFTING QPF MAXIMA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE PLAINS.
MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS COLORADO WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE, INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO DURING THE EVENING. THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AS THEY PASS ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES, AND OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS
NEAR 25 MPH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND FUELS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ON THE
PLAINS, WITH 70S AND 80S, WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SEE 60S FOR
HIGHS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TWO UPPER SYSTEM LOOK TO IMPACT
COLORADO FOR MID WEEK. THE FIRST WILL MOVE IN FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, WITH MOISTURE MOVING EAST IN SOUTHWEST FLOW, WHILE
THE SECONDARY SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING NORTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST
QPF AMOUNTS NORTH INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE, AND AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER,
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW, AND SHIFTING THE FOCUS SOUTH
ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA FOR WEDNESDAY. COLDER
AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO
NEAR 6 KFT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE, WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE
LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY DO WELL, WITH A FOOT OR MORE OF
SNOW POSSIBLE, WITH LESS AMOUNTS OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE.
DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR AND STORM TRACKS COULD
CHANGE, BUT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING A HALF
INCH OR MORE OF QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. AS MENTIONED, NBM
GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES (50S
ON THE PLAINS), WITH A MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IN THE 40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY, CUTTING OFF UPSLOPE WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH
PRECIPITATION WEAKENING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS
CONDITIONS CLEAR, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S ON THE PLAINS HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO
UNDER BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
QUICKLY, WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BACK INTO THE 70S AND
80S. ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WHERE OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS. BY SATURDAY A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON THE
PLAINS, WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ANOTHER COOL DOWN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT, DIURNAL WIND REGIMES REMAIN
EXPECTED AT COS, PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page