527
FXUS65 KPUB 031936
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
136 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO OUR MONDAY, WITH INCREASING
SNOW, RAIN SHOWERS, AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THOUGH FORECAST QPF
HAS DECREASED FOR SOME AREAS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT..
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS US IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE,
WHICH HAS LEAD TO SOME BREEZY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ALONG WITH SOME MIDDLE AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION AND OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, AND ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARDS INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SANGRES THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S AND 70S AS OF NOON,
AND ARE LIKELY TO SNEAK UP INTO THE 80S OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE RANGING
FROM MID TEENS INTO THE 20% RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. MOST AREAS LOOK TO
STAY DRY THROUGHOUT THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, THOUGH
ISOLATED SNOW, RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MAINLY FOR THE SAN JUANS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY MILD AS WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS LOOK TO COOL INTO
THE 30S FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND 40S FOR OUR PLAINS.
TOMORROW..
A LOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW
WILL HELP TO INCREASE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP
TO SPREAD IN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES OVERHEAD. DAYTIME
HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS,
THE PIKES PEAK REGION, AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR, WITH 80S FOR
THE REST OF THE PLAINS. MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
BOTH HUMIDITY VALUES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE HELD OFF ON HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW SINCE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO BE MARGINAL, AND ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
WINDIEST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. MODELS KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE
PLAINS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
LOOKING SIMILAR TO TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY..
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF TWO SYSTEMS AND
HOW THEY WILL INTERACT OVER COLORADO IN THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME. THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND SOME SOLUTIONS ABSORB IT FULLY INTO A
LARGER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY
EVENING. GEFS MEMBERS SORT OF SHOW THE TWO FEATURES MERGING BRIEFLY,
BUT HAVE STARTED TO ACTUALLY BREAK THE LOW OFF AGAIN, DRAGGING IT
SOUTH ACROSS THE MEXICO BORDER THROUGHOUT THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. THIS TREND HAS INFLUENCED A DECREASE IN QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO. PORTIONS OF
TELLER AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY REMAIN IN FAVORABLE AREAS FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION, ALONG WITH POSSIBLY THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS, NORTHERN SANGRES, AND THE WETS, BUT OVERALL QPF HAS
DECREASED SOMEWHAT. FOR NOW, CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS AND
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL REMAIN HIGH, BUT EXACT NUMBERS ARE STILL
LARGELY UNKNOWN. THE PALMER DIVIDE LOOKS TO SEE SOMEWHERE IN THE 3
TO 6 INCH RANGE OF SNOWFALL AT LEAST, BUT MUCH OF THAT WILL BE
MELTING AS IT FALLS THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES DO CONTINUE
TO TREND COOLER AS THE NORTHERN TROUGH BEGINS TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE
ON THE FORECAST, AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THIS PACKAGE. IMPACTS FROM HEAVY SNOW STILL LOOK POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION, BUT MAY BE MORE
FOCUSED ON DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES, WITH LESS RISK FOR TRAVEL
CONCERNS AS ROAD TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM. THAT SAID, THIS SYSTEM IS
COOLER THAN THE LAST, SO THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE MAY END UP
SEEING SNOW COVERED ROADS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THURSDAY ONWARDS..
WE SIT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM. FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS A LITTLE LESS CLEAR, AS SOME
SOLUTIONS ARE STILL DEALING WITH THE LOW PUSHING INTO TEXAS, AND
OTHERS HAD ALREADY PUSHED IT INTO THE TROUGH, BUT THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS KEEPS US IN SOMEWHAT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH ACTIVE
WEATHER AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AROUND THE SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME. THIS PATTERN KEEPS HIGHS IN THE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL RANGE, WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES, KCOS, KPUB,
AND KALS, FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25KT ARE LIKELY AT EACH STATION THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KALS AND KPUB. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MIDDLE AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT ANY STATION TODAY, BUT MAY BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, MAINLY NEAR KCOS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...EHR
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