540
FXUS65 KPUB 041756
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1156 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL
HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TODAY.
- A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION,
INCLUDING SNOW DOWN TO 5-6 KFT.
- DRIER CONDITIONS AND A QUICK WARM UP RETURN THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH A FLAT UPPER RIDGE
IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD WITH 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE, WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE 40S. OUT WEST, AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES, SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY DAYBREAK. SNOW
WILL BE UP HIGH, ABOVE 10 KFT, WITH SPOTTY LOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF CONCERNS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. THE FIRST IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SPOTTY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR HUERFANO, LAS
ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY, TO
NEAR 30 MPH, HOWEVER, HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL NEAR 15
PERCENT. GIVEN THE MARGINAL HUMIDITY VALUES AND RECENT
RAINFALL, OPTED TO NOT ISSUE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS
TIME. BUT, USE CAUTION WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES TODAY
DOWN SOUTH.
THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE EMBEDDED UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK FROM
WESTERN COLORADO, NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SPREAD
NORTHEAST INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTHEAST COLORADO BY EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION, A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON THE PALMER
DIVIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE TOASTY, WITH 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS,
AND 60S FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION TRACKING NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT, MOSTLY IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. CLOUD
COVER WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
RETURNS AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHEASTERLY. SHOWERS
COULD FILL IN ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT, BUT GUIDANCE HAS
IT HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL
WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
MODELS OVERALL REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE MOISTURE
MOVING ACROSS COLORADO FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH A COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. THE
MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS HAS BEEN THE OUT OF
PHASE NATURE OF THE CURRENT UPPER PATTERN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
IN ADDITION, THE SURFACE LOW THAT PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS HAD IS MUCH
WEAKER WITH THE CURRENT CYCLE, ALL OF WHICH WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO, WAS MOISTURE MOVES
OVERHEAD, AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAINFALL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE HIGH, INITIALLY ABOVE 9 KFT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
SNOW FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL TRACK
SOUTH INTO COLORADO, WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH. AS
MENTIONED, A SURFACE LOW, ALBEIT WEAKER WITH THIS CYCLE, LOOKS
TO FORM NEAR TRINIDAD AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONE THING THIS LOW WILL DO IS DRAWN
SOUTH COLDER AIR, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BECOME MORE FOCUSED FROM
THE PALMER DIVIDE, SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON
MESA. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS HAVE COME DOWN A BIT, MOST AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE HALF INCH TO INCH QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FOR THIS ON WEDNESDAY, THEY CONTINUE TO TREND
DOWN, WITH MOST AREAS NOW IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HAVE A
FEELING GUIDANCE IS STILL A BIT TOO WARM, AND THIS WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO NEAR 5 KFT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS MOST LIKELY ABOVE 6 KFT. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, TELLER COUNTY, NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAINS, WHERE
HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE A HEAVY, WET SNOW, AND
TREES HAVE LEAFED OUT. THIS COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE
ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY. POWER OUTAGES COULD ALSO OCCUR
WITH HEAVY SNOW ON POWER LINES. THE COMMUTE WEDNESDAY MORNING
COULD BE DIFFICULT ACROSS MONUMENT HILL.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN
WEDNESDAY EVENING, CLEARING THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH MOST AREAS ON THE PLAINS IN THE 20S. THOSE WITH SENSITIVE
PLANTS AND EXPOSED SPRINKLERS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
THEM.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST, WITH BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS COLORADO. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A QUICK WARM UP WITH 70S AND 80S DURING THIS PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT AND UPPER SYSTEM MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR TO EVEN LIFR CATEGORY FOR KCOS
AND KPUB BY TUE MORNING AS A FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING
AND CLOUDS AND -SHRA FILL IN BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES STAY WARM
ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES BUT MAY SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW AT KCOS LATER TUE EVENING WHICH COULD BRING SOME SLUSHY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO TUE EVENING. KPUB COULD SEE
A -SHRASN MIX TOWARDS TUE EVENING BUT ANY BRIEF ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD STAY LIMITED TO GRASSY SURFACES.
KALS WILL SEE VFR CIGS DROPPING OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH
-SHRA POSSIBLE BEGINNING EARLY TUE MORNING. CIGS SHOULD STAY
VFR. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-060.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR COZ072>075-079>082.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR COZ084.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page