319
FXUS65 KPUB 042004
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
204 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND SNOWFALL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON, SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- WE REMAIN ON TRACK FOR WETTING RAINS AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES AND
IMPACTS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE PIKES PEAK REGION.
- WE CLEAR OUT THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
LEADING TO THE WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE
THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE,
WITH LIGHTNING PRESENT OVER THE LA GARITAS AS OF 1230. WEST WINDS
HAVE STAYED GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WE SIT IN THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. KCOS IS STILL OBSERVING GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH, AND BOTH THE PUEBLO AND TRINIDAD ASOS SITES HAVE KEPT
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH UP THIS HOUR AS WELL. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
60S AND 70S ON THE PLAINS, AND MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED
TO STREAM IN AS WELL. BOTH WALSENBURG AND SPRINGFIELD HAVE COME
CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING INTO THE MID TEENS, BUT HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TO CLIMB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALAMOSA IS CURRENTLY AT
29%, AND TRINIDAD IS AT 23%. AS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST CONTINUES
TO PUSH ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON, MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES OVER OUR REGION. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THIS MOIST
SOUTHWEST ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OUR PLAINS THIS EVENING AS WELL, HELPING TO SPREAD CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND INTO OUR
PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE PLAINS REMAIN CLOSE
TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 30S AND
40S.
TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY..
MODELS ARE COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN
TWO SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE TWO SYSTEMS IN QUESTION ARE A
LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND A BROAD TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST.
THE GFS AND NOW THE NAM BOTH SHOW THE SOUTHWEST LOW INTERACTING WITH
THE TROUGH FOR A BIT ON TUESDAY, BEFORE SPLITTING BACK OFF AND
DIVING SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
NBM AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN QPF
OVER OUR REGION AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED BACK
SOUTHWARDS. THE EC IS STARTING TO COME ALONG WITH THIS SOLUTION NOW
AS WELL, THOUGH THE DECREASE IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOT AS
PRONOUNCED YET. WITH THE SOUTHWEST LOW GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHWARDS,
THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST
PROGRESSION MORE AND MORE. THIS MEANS THAT WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 ARE ULTIMATELY FORECAST TO SEE LESS MOISTURE, THE TROUGH
IS DRAGGING IN COLDER AND COLDER TEMPERATURES, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. FOR NOW, TELLER
AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY REMAIN IN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES,
THOUGH BOTH AREAS HAVE SEEN A MARKED INCREASE IN EXPECTED SNOW
TOTALS DUE TO THE INCREASED INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH
AND ITS COLDER TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS. THE PIKES PEAK REGION MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. AT
THIS TIME THOUGH, SIGNIFICANT MELTING IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE EVENT, AND SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN
ACTUAL SNOW DEPTH. IMPACTS FROM HEAVY, WET SNOW ARE LIKELY,
WHICH MAY LEAD TO DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES. TRAVEL IMPACTS
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ONCE ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE OVERCOME BY
SNOWFALL RATES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE, AND THROUGHOUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. RAIN INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGHOUT TUESDAY, SWITCHING TO SNOW ALONG WITH THE MOUNTAIN
ADJACENT PLAINS AND THE PALMER DIVIDE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY
LEAD TO A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS, THOUGH IT
IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND MOSTLY MELTING OFF QUICKLY
GIVEN WARMER GROUND TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE
40S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL TURN PRECIP TYPES BACK TO A
MIX AND EVENTUALLY TO RAIN AS WE WARM BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING.
OVERALL, MORE IMPACTS FROM DOWNED TREES THAT HAVE ALREADY LEAFED
OUT ARE EXPECTED THAN TRAVEL CONCERNS ON THE PLAINS WITH THIS
EVENT AT THIS TIME. MOUNTAIN DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE
HAZARDOUS THOUGH, WITH SNOW COVERED SLICK ROADS, BLOWING SNOW,
AND DEGRADED VISIBILITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH COUNTRY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
THURSDAY ONWARDS..
WE CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, WHILE SITTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS PAINT
LOW TO MID 20S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
WHICH HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FREEZE WATCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLEARING AND STRENGTH OF THE INCOMING NORTHERLY COLD PUSH. PLANTS
THAT SURVIVE THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND WET SNOWFALL ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY STILL BE AT RISK THURSDAY MORNING WITH
INCOMING HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS.
WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THURSDAY, WHICH LOOKS
TO KEEP US IN THE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL RANGE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, THE PIKES
PEAK REGION, AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR, WITH LOW TO MID 70S
ELSEWHERE ON THE PLAINS. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR
THURSDAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS ON THE PLAINS AND SLIGHTLY BREEZIER WINDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY. WE WARM UP BACK INTO THE WARMER
THAN NORMAL RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY'S TEMPERATURES AS
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL, MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE
SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, WHICH WOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR TO EVEN LIFR CATEGORY FOR KCOS
AND KPUB BY TUE MORNING AS A FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING
AND CLOUDS AND -SHRA FILL IN BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES STAY WARM
ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES BUT MAY SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW AT KCOS LATER TUE EVENING WHICH COULD BRING SOME SLUSHY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO TUE EVENING. KPUB COULD SEE
A -SHRASN MIX TOWARDS TUE EVENING BUT ANY BRIEF ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD STAY LIMITED TO GRASSY SURFACES.
KALS WILL SEE VFR CIGS DROPPING OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH
-SHRA POSSIBLE BEGINNING EARLY TUE MORNING. CIGS SHOULD STAY
VFR. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-060-063-076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR COZ072>075-078>082-087.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR COZ083>089-093>099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR COZ084.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...KT
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