028
FXUS65 KPUB 051138
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
538 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PASSING WINTER SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY, WET SNOW TO THE AREA
LATER TODAY THROUGH WEDS NIGHT. WETTING RAIN ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AT TIMES.
- SLUSHY ROADS, HAZARDOUS TRAVEL, AND DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER
LINES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.
- SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WEDS NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ON THE EVOLUTION OF OUR ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK. TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT SE
COLORADO; A BROAD UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR NORTH AND EAST, AND A
SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. A NORTHERLY SURGE
IS ALREADY THROUGH THE PLAINS, DUE TO THE NORTHERN TROUGH PASSING
BY. AS A RESULT, SURFACE WINDS OVER THE PLAINS WILL TURN ESE, GIVING
US PERSISTENT UPSLOPING TO HELP ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
COVER. PRECIP WILL MAINLY START INCREASING IN CHANCE AND COVERAGE
AFTER AROUND MIDDAY, AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE MORNING HOURS. THIS
WILL COINCIDE WITH AN INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS, WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE, MOUNTAINS/PLAINS INTERFACE, AND
GENERALLY OTHER AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
WITH THIS WINTRY SYSTEM COMING SO LATE IN THE SEASON, TEMPERATURES
WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN WHAT KINDS OF PRECIPITATION WE SEE AT THE
SURFACE, ALONG WITH RAIN/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND RATES. TO START,
TODAY'S SHOWERS WILL INITIATE AS RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS,
WHILE THE PEAKS OF THE MOUNTAINS SEE SNOW. INITIAL MOUNTAIN SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE TOP OF PIKES PEAK WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW INCHES
BY SUNSET. MOVING INTO TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP OVER
THE TOP OF THE PALMER, WITH RAIN SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT. BY WEDS MORNING, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OVER THE
REST OF I-25 AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
THE TRICKY PART WILL BE WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FOR
SNOW, ALONG WITH CONSIDERING HOW MUCH OF IT MELTS. WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE PALMER AT
THE INITIAL ONSET OF THE SYSTEM, WE'RE STILL EXPECTING A LOT OF
MELTING TO OCCUR WITH THE INITIAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THIS
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER ROADWAYS AND OTHER DARKER SURFACES,
WHILE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BETTER OVER GRASS, PLANTS, ETC. EVEN SO,
THIS COULD HAVE ITS OWN IMPACTS.
FIRST, MELTING SNOW ON ROADWAYS COULD EASILY LEAD TO SLUSHY, SLICK
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. DESPITE THE LACK OF INITIAL ACCUMULATION, THE
COMBINATION OF LIMITED VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER PRECIP AND SLUSHY ROADS
WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. NEXT, THE SNOW WE'RE EXPECTING SHOULD BE
ON THE HEAVIER AND WETTER SIDE OF THINGS. AS SUCH, EXPECT SOME
DAMAGE TO LEAFY TREES AND OTHER PLANTS. TREE BRANCHES COULD COME
DOWN FROM THE ADDED WEIGHT, AND DAMAGE TO POWER LINES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES SHOULD BE NOTED AS WELL.
MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL COME UP A BIT DURING THE
DAY AS PRECIP CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST FORECAST HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 40S OVER THE PLAINS, THOUGH THAT MAY
DROP A FEW DEGREES DEPENDING ON HOW HEAVY PRECIP IS AT THE SURFACE.
REGARDLESS, EXPECTING AN AFTERNOON SWITCH FROM SOLELY SNOW TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX, THOUGH SNOW WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE PRECIP MODE
QUICKLY AGAIN ONCE THE SUN STARTS TO SET.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECASTED SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS LATEST
UPDATE. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS,
TELLER COUNTY, AND THE PALMER DIVIDE, WITH SOME AREAS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE OVER A FOOT BY WEDS NIGHT. THAT BEING SAID, WITH THE MELTING
WE'RE EXPECTING WITH THIS SYSTEM, THOSE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ON THE
GROUND AT THE SAME TIME. EVEN SO, IMPACT-WISE, STILL EXPECTING A
HEAVY WET SNOW ALONG WITH POTENTIAL TREE/POWER LINES DAMAGE, AS WELL
AS SLUSHY ROADS. AS SUCH, HAVE UPGRADED TELLER AND NORTHERN EL PASO
TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS. GIVEN THE LESSER IMPACTS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, LEFT THE ADVISORIES AS THEY WERE FOR NOW, BUT MAY NEED TO
LOOK AT UPGRADING THE PEAKS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE
DAY, ASSUMING QPF DOESN'T COME DOWN WITH INCOMING MODEL RUNS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG-TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE AREA
WILL DRY OUT WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
EAST OF US. WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE AND FEWER CLOUDS, WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD. SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA,
WITH A FREEZE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.
BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN ALOFT ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S TO LOW-
70S OVER MOST OF OUR AREA, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS SETTING IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD KEEP US FREE OF ANY
WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS CLOSE TO OUR REGION AROUND SATURDAY, SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ONTO THE PLAINS AND BRINGING TEMPS BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
KCOS AND KPUB: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY, WITH IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS CEILINGS DROP. THICK LOW
TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THIS TAF
PERIOD, WITH CLOUDS LOWERING AND THICKENING IN COVERAGE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. SPEAKING OF PRECIPITATION,
SHOWERS WILL START TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR BOTH
SITES, WITH RAIN INITIALLY. THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS, BUT ESPECIALLY FOR KPUB. PRECIPITATION WILL STEADILY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS, AND AS
TEMPERATURES DROP, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FOR
KCOS AND AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR KPUB. ANY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DROP VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS QUICKLY. BEYOND ALL OF
THAT, RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL STEADILY LESSEN AGAIN HEADING
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR BOTH SITES.
KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD,
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING NEAR THE END AS CEILINGS LOWER. MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY, AND WILL STEADILY LOWER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR THE TAF
SITE. IN ADDITION, SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
LATE IN THE PERIOD, SOME OF WHICH MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITE. QUICK
DROPS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING ANY SHOWER
PASSAGE. OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL STEADILY LESSEN
AGAIN HEADING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR BOTH
SITES.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR COZ058-060-063-076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR COZ072>075-078>080-087.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ081-082.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR COZ083>089-093>099.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR COZ084.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...SIMCOE
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