962
FXUS65 KPUB 191518
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
918 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST AND FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS THROUGH 8 AM.
- COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP COMING IN TONIGHT.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY ON OUR EASTERN PLAINS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 910 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHING OUT WEST AHEAD OF THE GREAT BASIN
UPPER TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED SOME WEAK SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS IN AREA OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND MID LEVEL WAA. SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING, FOLLOWED
BY SOME HEATING AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN A
NARROW RIBBON ON THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT
HIGH TODAY, AND ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN FIRE MAY BE
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. AS THEY PUSH EASTWARD AND
ENCOUNTER THE COOLER AIRMASS TO THE EAST, WE SHOULD SEE THUNDER
RISK DIMINISH BUT SHOWERS PERSIST AS THEY GET SUSTAINED BY
CONTINUED WEAK OVERRUNNING. HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS AND
TOOK DOWN FROST/FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS AT THEIR NATURAL EXPIRATION.
-KT
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
THE POST FRONTAL COLD AIRMASS IS FINALLY HERE TO STAY, AND CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS OUR
PLAINS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE IN PLACE, FOG AND FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE PIKES PEAK REGION, THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY, DOWN INTO THE
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND OUR MOUNTAIN ADJACENT PLAINS WEST OF
I-25. FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THESE
PLACES THAT ARE INTO THEIR GROWING SEASONS BY NOW, AND NORTHERN
EL PASO COUNTY REMAINS IN A FREEZE WARNING THROUGH 8 AM THIS
MORNING AS WELL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY COOL UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, THOUGH SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST WHERE UPSLOPING WILL BE
LESS IMPACTFUL. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE 1-25 CORRIDOR, WITH 60S FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
THE EASTERN PLAINS. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
OUR MOUNTAIN ADJACENT PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING
AS UPSLOPE DEEPENS, BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS MOVE IN
AFTER SUNSET AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN ANOTHER TROUGH OUT
WEST COMES THROUGH THE REGION. MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO DROP DOWN TO 8,000 OR 9,000FT IN
SOME AREAS, WHICH SHOULD PUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SANGRES, THE WETS, AND THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING IN MOST
PLACES, THOUGH THE PALMER DIVIDE MAY DROP DOWN INTO THE 33 TO
34F DEGREE RANGE ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WEDNESDAY..
WE START OUT OUR WEDNESDAY MORNING COOL, CLOUDY, AND WITH PRECIP
CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS, BUT DRY OUT GRADUALLY THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. AFTER A MORNING
LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES THOUGH, ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH LOOKS TO
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK FOR MOST OF THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND PORTIONS OF OUR PLAINS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS SHOULD LIMIT ANY CHANCES FOR
SEVERE STORMS AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, BUT CLEARING OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
THURSDAY..
THURSDAY COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY AS OUR NEXT TROUGH DIGS IN TO
OUR NORTHWEST AND BRINGS STRONGER FORCING FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. MODELS BRING ITS AXIS INTO WESTERN CO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
OUT AHEAD OF IF IT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS BRINGS 40 AND 50
DEGREE DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE PLAINS, AND JUICES UP INSTABILITY AS
WELL. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE FORECAST AROUND 35KT TO 45KT FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS, WHERE 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ABOUT WHERE A DRYLINE MAY SET UP
OBVIOUSLY WITH THE EVENT BEING THIS FAR OUT, BUT IT IS SAFE TO SAY
THAT THURSDAY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL
ACROSS OUR PLAINS.
FRIDAY ONWARDS..
MODELS KEEPS US IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY,
THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTHWEST, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
LOOKS TO STAY OVER THE REGION TO KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS LOOK TO STAY ON THE WEAK SIDE AND
HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS WELL, SO AT THIS TIME FIRE DANGER IS NOT EXPECTED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KALS: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 24 HOURS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING, GUSTING 25-30 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z OR SO,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA AND BRIEFLY LOWERED CIGS AND VIS
INTO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KCOS: BRIEF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER INTO LATE MORNING,
WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MVFR CIGS. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS WILL SET IN LATER TONIGHT, WITH LOW-MVFR TO HIGH-IFR LASTING
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KPUB: FLOW WILL REMAIN ESE TO ENE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH LOW
MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS. CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 00-03Z THIS EVENING.
EVEN AFTER RAIN DISSIPATES LATE TONIGHT, STILL EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY MIST/FOG INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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