335
FXUS65 KPUB 200502
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1102 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, PARTICULARLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS MOST
OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
- GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING OVER THE WEEKEND BUT ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNS NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WESTERN U.S.
UPPER LOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY HAVE BROUGHT A MUCH NEEDED
REPRIEVE TO THE WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS TODAY. MEANWHILE, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE
RETURNED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AT TIMES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BETTER
SURFACE HEATING HAS BEEN OCCURING. ACROSS THE PLAINS, A STRONG CAP
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THOUGH AS THE GREAT BASIN UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, BROAD OVERRUNNING WILL COMBINE WITH
SHALLOW EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATIFORM
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT
BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE ROUGHLY
8500 FEET. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER CLOUDY NIGHT WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS IN SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT CLOUDY AND SHOWERY FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH GLANCES BY
TO THE NORTH. BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WHERE CAPE OF UP TO 750 J/KG WILL BE
IN PLACE. THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS LOOK CAPPED INITIALLY BUT COULD SEE
SOME BROAD OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP TO THE EAST. SHOWERS SHOULD PULL EASTWARD INTO
KS TOWARDS MORNING. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A MIX
OF 40S AND 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS, WITH COOLER READINGS ABOVE
TIMBERLINE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES AND SWINGING BY TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FORCING, ALONG WITH BETTER SURFACE HEATING,
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW, AND
DECENT DEEP LAYERS SHEARS, SHOULD TRIGGER A ROUND OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE, ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
MODELS PUSH A DRY LINE NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE RATON MESA WITH
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PUTTING A RIBBON OF 1500+ J/KG OF CAPE ALONG
THE NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR COUNTIES OF PUEBLO AND EL PASO COUNTIES,
EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. HODOGRAPHS SHOW
SOME DECENT CURVATURE, ESPECIALLY WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE MORE
EASTERLY, AND WITH DEEP LAYER SHEARS AROUND 40 KTS, LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE
IS STILL A BIT OF A CAP FARTHER EAST NEAR KLAA IN THE AFTERNOON,
THOUGH A LOW LEVEL JET AND COOLING ALOFT WITH THE INCOMING UPPER
TROUGH STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT SUGGESTING
CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
CO/WESTERN KS. MAIN SEVERE RISK WOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR, BUT THERE IS A FAIR
CHANCE OF RAIN (50-70%) ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WESTERN
AREAS, BY CONTRAST, WILL REMAIN DRY AND BREEZY. TEMPERATURES WARM
AROUND 5 DEGREES OVER THOSE OF THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER WAVE. SOME MINOR COOLING AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. BEST CAPE WILL LIKELY BE TO THE SOUTH OF
CO OR NEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
IT REMAINS AN ACTIVE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SOME MINOR RIDGING
INTO SUNDAY LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE DRIEST DAY LOOKS TO BE
SUNDAY. TROUGHING RETURNS OUT WEST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS CO BRINGING RETURN MOISTURE AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS.
-KT
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KCOS AND KPUB: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TAF PERIOD AS THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST AND KEEP CEILING
HEIGHTS LOW. IN ADDITION, ONGOING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THE PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH WILL BRING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AS WELL. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BY EARLY MORNING,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THAT
SAID, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN ANTICIPATED TO PUSH OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND TOWARD THE TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SUDDEN
INCREASE IN WINDS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN AROUND
AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND WITH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT, AND THESE MAY IMPACT THE
TAF SITE, BRINGING SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IF SO. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT, AT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING,
WITH WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
DIURNAL MIXING DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE, LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
STEADILY RISE IN HEIGHTS THROUGH TOMORROW.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...SIMCOE
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