189
FXUS65 KPUB 200702
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
102 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS
(STORMS EXPECTED TO LAST WELL INTO THE EARLY AM HOURS OVER
FAR EASTERN PLAINS).
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD (NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1259 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON, MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. STORMS TODAY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG, ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. THE
ONE ISSUE IS THE STORMS MAY LAST WELL INTO THE EARLY AM HOURS OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF US50.
AS FOR TEMP, IT WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MAX
TEMPS ONLY INT THE U50S TO L70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE COOLEST
WEATHER OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE OVER N EL PASO COUNTY, WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR, THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE U60S.
A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
OVERALL TREND IN THE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES. 70S ON THURSDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY TEMPS
APPROACHING 90 BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. WE WILL ALSO IT BECOMING
DRIER. FORTUNATELY, SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL RH VALUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE LOW.
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ON
THURSDAY AS FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS, AND EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE TO SEE
SOME ROTATING STORMS OVER THE PLAINS DURING THIS DAY AS CAMS ARE
SHOWING SOME MODEST HELICITY SWATHS MOVING OVER THE PLAINS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME PERIODS. LIKEWISE I
ANTICIPATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, WITH A
LOW END TORNADO THREAT POSSIBLE. SPC STILL HAS THE FCST AREA UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK, BUT IT DOES HAVE A 2% PERCENT TORNADO THREAT OVER ALL
OF THE PLAINS ON THE 06 UTC SWODY2.
FOR FRI AND SAT, WE WILL SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS, BUT EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO BE WEAKER AND MORE
ISOLATED. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE PERIOD, BUT WE
MAY SEE A RAMP UP IN ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KCOS AND KPUB: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TAF PERIOD AS THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST AND KEEP CEILING
HEIGHTS LOW. IN ADDITION, ONGOING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THE PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH WILL BRING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AS WELL. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BY EARLY MORNING,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THAT
SAID, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN ANTICIPATED TO PUSH OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND TOWARD THE TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SUDDEN
INCREASE IN WINDS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN AROUND
AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND WITH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT, AND THESE MAY IMPACT THE
TAF SITE, BRINGING SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IF SO. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT, AT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING,
WITH WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
DIURNAL MIXING DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE, LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
STEADILY RISE IN HEIGHTS THROUGH TOMORROW.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...SIMCOE
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