405
FXUS65 KPUB 201805
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1205 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS
(STORMS EXPECTED TO LAST WELL INTO THE EARLY AM HOURS OVER
FAR EASTERN PLAINS).
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD (NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1259 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON, MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. STORMS TODAY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG, ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. THE
ONE ISSUE IS THE STORMS MAY LAST WELL INTO THE EARLY AM HOURS OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF US50.
AS FOR TEMP, IT WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MAX
TEMPS ONLY INT THE U50S TO L70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE COOLEST
WEATHER OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE OVER N EL PASO COUNTY, WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR, THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE U60S.
A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
OVERALL TREND IN THE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES. 70S ON THURSDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY TEMPS
APPROACHING 90 BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. WE WILL ALSO IT BECOMING
DRIER. FORTUNATELY, SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL RH VALUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE LOW.
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ON
THURSDAY AS FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS, AND EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE TO SEE
SOME ROTATING STORMS OVER THE PLAINS DURING THIS DAY AS CAMS ARE
SHOWING SOME MODEST HELICITY SWATHS MOVING OVER THE PLAINS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME PERIODS. LIKEWISE I
ANTICIPATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, WITH A
LOW END TORNADO THREAT POSSIBLE. SPC STILL HAS THE FCST AREA UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK, BUT IT DOES HAVE A 2% PERCENT TORNADO THREAT OVER ALL
OF THE PLAINS ON THE 06 UTC SWODY2.
FOR FRI AND SAT, WE WILL SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS, BUT EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO BE WEAKER AND MORE
ISOLATED. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE PERIOD, BUT WE
MAY SEE A RAMP UP IN ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT COS, RELATIVELY
QUIET ACROSS THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. WINDS DO INCREASE AT
ALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 30KT. WHILE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DOES EXPAND IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THIS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
STAY AWAY FROM ALS. SO ANTICIPATE DRIER WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALS.
AGAIN, MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE ACROSS COS AT THIS TIME BUT
SHOULD SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR BOTH COS AND PUB. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PERIODIC GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KT LIKELY. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DOES INCREASE AROUND
BOTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS APPEARING TO
BE MOST LIKELY IN THE EVENING TIME FRAME. STILL SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE MAINTAINED IT IN THE TAF.
DID KEEP THE PROB30 GOING THOUGH AS CONFIDENCE ON DIRECT IMPACTS
TO THE TERMINALS STILL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS DRY
LATE THIS EVENING, BUT MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO BOTH
PUB AND COS AND GIVEN A WIND TREND BACK TO AN EAST SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION, SHOULD SEE THESE CEILINGS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH/KT
LONG TERM...HODANISH/KT
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page