306
FXUS65 KPUB 201919
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
119 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
- CONTINUED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING
MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL RADARS ARE INDICATING SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTNS, WITH SPC MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATING SB CAPE OF 250-500 J/G AT THIS
TIME ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR,
CLOUDS AND UPSLOPE FLOW HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE THE 40S AND 50S AT
THIS TIME, WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LEADING TO CURRENT READINGS IN THE
50S AND 60S ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS, WITH READINGS IN THE 40S, 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS TIME.
LATEST HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MEAN CAPE OF 400-800 J/KG OVER
AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR INTO
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
HELPING TO KEEP ACTIVITY ONGOING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS, BEFORE STORMS
CONTINUE INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY, STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH, SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE, WILL
SEE DECREASING CLOUDS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS, WHERE
STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, LATEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO, WITH EXPECTED STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE
AGAIN, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHORTWAVE, TRANSLATES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SAID SHORT WAVE WILL AID IN
STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, WITH STORMS PUSHING EAST INTO A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE STORM
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH THE LATEST HREF INDICATING MEAN CAPE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG. LATEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS DEVELOPING LEE LOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS, WITH INCREASING STORM RELATIVE HELICITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, SUPPORTING SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER, DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH, AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
WITH THAT SAID, THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN A
SLIGHT RISK, WITH THE REST OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
THE PASSING WAVE SENDS A FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH DEVELOPING EASTERLY UPSLOPE KEEPING THE BEST
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES MORE EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES TRANSLATING THROUGH THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
LEVELS INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND, WITH HIGH IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING FOR THE LATER PORTION
OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS, WITH CONTINUED THOUGH MORE LIMITED
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS GENERALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT COS, RELATIVELY
QUIET ACROSS THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. WINDS DO INCREASE AT
ALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 30KT. WHILE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DOES EXPAND IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THIS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
STAY AWAY FROM ALS. SO ANTICIPATE DRIER WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALS.
AGAIN, MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE ACROSS COS AT THIS TIME BUT
SHOULD SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR BOTH COS AND PUB. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PERIODIC GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KT LIKELY. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DOES INCREASE AROUND
BOTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS APPEARING TO
BE MOST LIKELY IN THE EVENING TIME FRAME. STILL SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE MAINTAINED IT IN THE TAF.
DID KEEP THE PROB30 GOING THOUGH AS CONFIDENCE ON DIRECT IMPACTS
TO THE TERMINALS STILL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS DRY
LATE THIS EVENING, BUT MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO BOTH
PUB AND COS AND GIVEN A WIND TREND BACK TO AN EAST SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION, SHOULD SEE THESE CEILINGS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ
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