671
FXUS65 KPUB 202344
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
544 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
- CONTINUED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING
MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL RADARS ARE INDICATING SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTNS, WITH SPC MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATING SB CAPE OF 250-500 J/G AT THIS
TIME ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR,
CLOUDS AND UPSLOPE FLOW HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE THE 40S AND 50S AT
THIS TIME, WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LEADING TO CURRENT READINGS IN THE
50S AND 60S ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS, WITH READINGS IN THE 40S, 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS TIME.
LATEST HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MEAN CAPE OF 400-800 J/KG OVER
AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR INTO
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
HELPING TO KEEP ACTIVITY ONGOING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS, BEFORE STORMS
CONTINUE INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY, STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH, SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE, WILL
SEE DECREASING CLOUDS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS, WHERE
STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, LATEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO, WITH EXPECTED STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE
AGAIN, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHORTWAVE, TRANSLATES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SAID SHORT WAVE WILL AID IN
STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, WITH STORMS PUSHING EAST INTO A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE STORM
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH THE LATEST HREF INDICATING MEAN CAPE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG. LATEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS DEVELOPING LEE LOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS, WITH INCREASING STORM RELATIVE HELICITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, SUPPORTING SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER, DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH, AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
WITH THAT SAID, THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN A
SLIGHT RISK, WITH THE REST OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
THE PASSING WAVE SENDS A FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH DEVELOPING EASTERLY UPSLOPE KEEPING THE BEST
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES MORE EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES TRANSLATING THROUGH THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
LEVELS INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND, WITH HIGH IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING FOR THE LATER PORTION
OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS, WITH CONTINUED THOUGH MORE LIMITED
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS GENERALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED IN AT ALL SITES AT THIS TIME, WHILE
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING ANY SHOWERY DEVELOPMENT STAYING
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD FOR ALS WITH THE GUSTIER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OBSERVED TODAY RETURNING ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
FOR COS AND PUB ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT. AT THIS
TIME, ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO
STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS, AND DON'T HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN
LATE THIS EVENING AND LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID
MORNING. DO THINK THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR IFR CEILINGS AT COS
BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF
THE TAF. ADDITIONALLY, SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER CEILINGS TO
CONTINUE SLIGHTLY LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, AND WILL ALLOW
LATER FORECASTS TO UPDATE AS NEEDED.
WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN PLACE THIS EVENING, WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED MAY START OUT SOMEWHAT ERRATIC AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD FOR COS AND PUB. A TRENDS TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD
OCCUR FOR COS THROUGH MID EVENING, WHILE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
EAST OCCURS AT PUB. LIGHTER EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN LATER
TONIGHT, BEFORE THESE WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ
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