712
FXUS65 KPUB 211714
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1114 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE PLAINS.
- SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE FRI AND SAT, DRIER AND HOTTER SUNDAY.
- BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR MTNS TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 100 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SURGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING AS 50 DEWPTS WERE NOTED INCREASING OVER THE
PLAINS, THIS MOISTURE WAS FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
THE CO/KS BORDER.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF S MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH AN UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE, MODEST DEEP SHEAR OF 35
TO 45 KNTS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES (8 C/KM) WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
ROTATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST CAMS, IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF US50. ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK NORTH OF US50 DURING THE EVENING HOURS,
BUT THESE STORMS WILL ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. AS PER THE
LATEST 06 UTC SWODY1, IF A CELL COULD BE LOCALLY DOMINANT, THEN
THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT OVER THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
WEAK TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE S MTNS AND PLAINS
DURING THIS PERIOD. FLOW WILL BE WEAKER ALOFT BUT IT WILL BE WARMER
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD, SO A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
BOTH DAYS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY IT WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 80S TO L90S OVER THE
PLAINS. STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE QUITE
WEAK.
TUESDAY, A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FCST TO MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND THEN LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH A SLUG OF MOISTURE OVER THE INTERIOR
MTNS, AND WE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP
OVER THE INTERIOR MTNS. UNFORTUNATELY, WE MAY ALSO SEE QUITE A BIT
OF CG LIGHTNING ON THIS DAY, AND THIS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS. A FRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE
REGION BY MID WEEK. \/HODANISH
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
WEAK TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE S MTNS AND PLAINS
DURING THIS PERIOD. FLOW WILL BE WEAKER ALOFT BUT IT WILL BE WARMER
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD, SO A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
BOTH DAYS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY IT WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 80S TO L90S OVER THE
PLAINS. STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE QUITE
WEAK.
TUESDAY, A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FCST TO MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND THEN LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH A SLUG OF MOISTURE OVER THE INTERIOR
MTNS, AND WE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP
OVER THE INTERIOR MTNS. UNFORTUNATELY, WE MAY ALSO SEE QUITE A BIT
OF CG LIGHTNING ON THIS DAY, AND THIS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE
REGION BY MID WEEK. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT COS, PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LATEST MODEL DATA KEEPS BEST CHANCES OF STORMS NORTH OF
COS AND SOUTH OF PUB AND DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT COS AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT PUB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 04Z-06Z
WITH PASSING WAVES ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT ALS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MW
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