166
FXUS65 KPUB 212037
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
237 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- WARMING TREND FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE MOISTURE POSSIBLY MOVING INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES, AS A TROUGH IS TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME.
MORNING STRATUS ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS BROKEN UP, WITH REGIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, AS WELL AS ACROSS THE RATON MESA AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. REGIONAL RADARS ARE INDICATING A SOME WEAK ECHOES
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS, WITH
A FEW STORMS FIRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AS OF 1 PM.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPC MESO ANALYSIS HAS SB CAPE OF 500-
1000 J/KG ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR, INCREASING TO OVER 2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS, WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AT THIS TIME. SPC MESO ANALYSIS ALSO HAS THE STRONGEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO, WITH
20-30KTS OF SHEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME.
LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, WITH CAMS CONTINUING TO INDICATE SUPER CELL DEVELOPMENT AND
HELICITY SWATHS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO LINE OUT AS THEY MOVE
INTO WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH THAT SAID, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 238 IS IN EFFECT FOR LAS ANIMAS, BACA, OTERO,
BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES THROUGH 03Z. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PALMER DVD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS, WITH THE STRONGER SHEAR, BUT LESSER PROGGED
INSTABILITY, AS A FEW CAMS DO INDICATE SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE PALMER.
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT, WITH
A SECONDARY ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH THE SYSTEMS PASSING COLD FRONT. BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS
PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT, WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO BEHIND THE FRONT. UPSLOPE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH YET
ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE WITHIN THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
HELPING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN AT TO BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW, WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MAINLY 60S ACROSS THE HIGH MTN VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
MODEST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LATEST MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, KEEPING THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMING AND DRYING TREND
FOR SUNDAY, WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON MTN SHOWERS.
BY MONDAY...MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
MOISTURE WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND TRANSLATES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT COS, PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LATEST MODEL DATA KEEPS BEST CHANCES OF STORMS NORTH OF
COS AND SOUTH OF PUB AND DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT COS AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT PUB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 04Z-06Z
WITH PASSING WAVES ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT ALS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
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