131
FXUS65 KPUB 220637
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1237 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY, NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE
- WARM UP STARTING SUNDAY
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLY TUESDAY DUE TO LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY IN THE PARCHED INTERIOR MTNS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER GIVEN LESS INSTABILITY AND DECREASED SHEAR,
THE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE. ADDITIONALLY, THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAYS COVERAGE. BASED
ON GUIDANCE, THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE IN THE GREATER
PIKES PEAK REGION AND THE GREATER RATON MESA REGION DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AS FOR TEMPS TOMORROW, IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. EXPECT TEMPS MAIN AROUND 70 MOST OF THE PLAINS AND
VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
ONCE AGAIN, STORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE ALONG THE
RATON MESA AND THE PIKES PEAK REGION, THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY DOWN ALONG THE NM BORDER AND ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD
BE MARGINALLY SEVERE. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM UP ABOUT 5
DEGREES MORE THAN FRIDAYS MAX TEMPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP MORE ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER 80S
OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS AND 75-80F OVER THE LARGER VALLEYS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND HIGH BASED.
FOR MONDAY, A FAIRLY STOUT CLOSED LOW IS FCST TO DROP INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHERNLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
START TO PUSH UP INTO THE SW CONUS. THIS IN TURN WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS.
TEMPS OVER THE REGION WILL INCREASE 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAYS
HIGH TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY, MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE ENTIRE REGION,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR MTNS. THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE
INTERIOR AREAS HAVE BEEN QUITE DRY PER DROUGHT CHARTS, AND ANY
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF FIRE STARTS
OVER ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS DAY, BUT THE PLAINS WILL STILL BE WELL
INTO THE 80S. STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG THIS
DAY AS SHEAR WILL NOTICEABLY INCREASE OVER THE REGION.
STEPPING BACK A BIT, THE TUESDAY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY. IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS A BIT DEEPER AND A BIT
MORE FARTHER EAST, THEN THE WEATHER WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
QUITE ACTIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
FOR KCOS AND KPUB..VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR BOTH SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KCOS COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF MVFR CIGS FRI MORNING AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. CLOUD DECKS
LOWER LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF RAIN CHANCES ON BOTH
STATIONS. MAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON KCOS BETWEEN 00Z AND 05Z
FRIDAY EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE. STUCK WITH MVFR FOR NOW AS
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHER.
FOR KALS..VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 22KT OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR STATION. ONCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MOVE
PAST STATION, A WIND SHIFTS TOWARDS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED,
WITH GUSTS TO 30KT POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY, BUT LOWER
CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF ANY SHOWERS OR VIRGA MOVE OVER
STATION.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...EHR/KT
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