461
FXUS65 KPUB 221128
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
528 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY, NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE
- WARM UP STARTING SUNDAY
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLY TUESDAY DUE TO LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY IN THE PARCHED INTERIOR MTNS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER GIVEN LESS INSTABILITY AND DECREASED SHEAR,
THE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE. ADDITIONALLY, THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAYS COVERAGE. BASED
ON GUIDANCE, THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE IN THE GREATER
PIKES PEAK REGION AND THE GREATER RATON MESA REGION DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AS FOR TEMPS TOMORROW, IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. EXPECT TEMPS MAIN AROUND 70 MOST OF THE PLAINS AND
VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
ONCE AGAIN, STORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE ALONG THE
RATON MESA AND THE PIKES PEAK REGION, THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY DOWN ALONG THE NM BORDER AND ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD
BE MARGINALLY SEVERE. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM UP ABOUT 5
DEGREES MORE THAN FRIDAYS MAX TEMPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP MORE ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER 80S
OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS AND 75-80F OVER THE LARGER VALLEYS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND HIGH BASED.
FOR MONDAY, A FAIRLY STOUT CLOSED LOW IS FCST TO DROP INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHERNLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
START TO PUSH UP INTO THE SW CONUS. THIS IN TURN WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS.
TEMPS OVER THE REGION WILL INCREASE 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAYS
HIGH TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY, MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE ENTIRE REGION,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR MTNS. THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE
INTERIOR AREAS HAVE BEEN QUITE DRY PER DROUGHT CHARTS, AND ANY
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF FIRE STARTS
OVER ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS DAY, BUT THE PLAINS WILL STILL BE WELL
INTO THE 80S. STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG THIS
DAY AS SHEAR WILL NOTICEABLY INCREASE OVER THE REGION.
STEPPING BACK A BIT, THE TUESDAY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY. IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS A BIT DEEPER AND A BIT
MORE FARTHER EAST, THEN THE WEATHER WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
QUITE ACTIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
VFR STRATUS IS FILLING IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO AND WILL SPREAD
INTO THE KCOS AND KPUB TAFS NEAR THE START OF THE 12Z TAF VALID
PERIOD. CIGS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS MORNING AT
BOTH TERMINALS ONCE WINDS SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST. CIGS
WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW END VFR CATEGORY TOWARDS AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW BREAKS POSSIBLE BEFORE -SHRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SPREADS EASTWARD, LOWERING CIGS AND BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO
BOTH TERMINALS. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 06Z WITH VFR TO
MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN
CONTINUED LIGHT SE UPSLOPE FLOW.
KALS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH VCSH POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINAL AFTER 19Z AS SHOWERS MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS
THE VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
SOME CLEARING JUST BEYOND THE 24 HOUR VALID TAF PERIOD. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
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