665
FXUS65 KPUB 221759
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1159 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY, NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE
- WARM UP STARTING SUNDAY
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLY TUESDAY DUE TO LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY IN THE PARCHED INTERIOR MTNS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER GIVEN LESS INSTABILITY AND DECREASED SHEAR,
THE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE. ADDITIONALLY, THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAYS COVERAGE. BASED
ON GUIDANCE, THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE IN THE GREATER
PIKES PEAK REGION AND THE GREATER RATON MESA REGION DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AS FOR TEMPS TOMORROW, IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. EXPECT TEMPS MAIN AROUND 70 MOST OF THE PLAINS AND
VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
ONCE AGAIN, STORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE ALONG THE
RATON MESA AND THE PIKES PEAK REGION, THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY DOWN ALONG THE NM BORDER AND ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD
BE MARGINALLY SEVERE. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM UP ABOUT 5
DEGREES MORE THAN FRIDAYS MAX TEMPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP MORE ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER 80S
OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS AND 75-80F OVER THE LARGER VALLEYS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND HIGH BASED.
FOR MONDAY, A FAIRLY STOUT CLOSED LOW IS FCST TO DROP INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHERNLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
START TO PUSH UP INTO THE SW CONUS. THIS IN TURN WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS.
TEMPS OVER THE REGION WILL INCREASE 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAYS
HIGH TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY, MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE ENTIRE REGION,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR MTNS. THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE
INTERIOR AREAS HAVE BEEN QUITE DRY PER DROUGHT CHARTS, AND ANY
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF FIRE STARTS
OVER ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS DAY, BUT THE PLAINS WILL STILL BE WELL
INTO THE 80S. STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG THIS
DAY AS SHEAR WILL NOTICEABLY INCREASE OVER THE REGION.
STEPPING BACK A BIT, THE TUESDAY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY. IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS A BIT DEEPER AND A BIT
MORE FARTHER EAST, THEN THE WEATHER WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
QUITE ACTIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
RELATIVELY QUIET AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER
AND VFR CEILINGS IN PLACE. WEATHER DOES INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING AS SHOWERS, CURRENTLY TO THE WEST OF
THE TERMINALS, SPREAD EAST. WHILE ALS REMAINS ON THE DRIER SIDE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING, A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
IS LIKELY FOR BOTH COS AND PUB AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE TAFS TO
REFLECT THIS. DID NOT LOWER VIS TOO MUCH BUT AM MONITORING
TRENDS AND COULD EASILY SEE NEEDING TO AT LEAST ADD MVFR VIS IN
THESE SHOWERS TO BOTH PUB AND COS. ADDITIONALLY, THE RISK OF
THUNDER LOOKS LOW, AND HAVE EXCLUDED ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
SIMILARLY TO VIS TRENDS, WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE NEED TO ADD AT
LEAST A SMALL WINDOW OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST LATER THIS
EVENING. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST FOR PUB BUT THERE IS MEDIUM
CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS RETURN FOR COS, AND HAVE MAINTAINED
THAT IN THE GRIDS. VFR CEILINGS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER BY EARLY TO MID MORNING.
WINDS ACROSS COS AND PUB WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN,
ESPECIALLY FOR COS. IT DOES LOOK AS IF A TREND BACK TO EAST
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OCCURS FOR PUB LATE TONIGHT THOUGH. WINDS
WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS ALS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS
QUICKLY INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD, WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
IN SPEEDS AND GUSTS BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WINDS EVENTUALLY
SETTLE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ
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